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An Operational Flood Risk Assessment System for Better Resilience Against Rain‐Induced Impacts Under Climate Change in Hong Kong
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An Operational Flood Risk Assessment System for Better Resilience Against Rain‐Induced Impacts Under Climate Change in Hong Kong
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Journal Article
An Operational Flood Risk Assessment System for Better Resilience Against Rain‐Induced Impacts Under Climate Change in Hong Kong
2025
Overview
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events are apparently becoming more frequent. In Hong Kong, a record‐breaking ‘Black’ Rainstorm on 7–8 September 2023 brought widespread flooding and caused landslides, paralysing the entire community. To enhance the community's response and resilience in coping with extreme weather, the Hong Kong Observatory has developed the Flood Risk Assessment System (FRAS), which embraces an impact‐based forecasting method and a risk‐based warning strategy. The main inputs are real‐time rainfall data from rain gauges and the in‐house developed probabilistic rainfall nowcast. The process from rain falling through the air to flooding observed on the ground is complicated, involving many non‐meteorological and random factors. As a result, the corresponding impact assessment is highly non‐trivial. The key technique adopted by FRAS is the use of a district‐scale ‘rainfall‐flooding impact’ statistical model, developed through in‐depth study of historical flood reports and rainfall records. The risk‐based warning strategy is designed largely based on the risk matrix recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. The performance of FRAS has been optimised in accordance with users' operational needs under the premises of a high safety margin and early alert. FRAS was launched in May 2024 for trial by government departments/bureaux, operating continuously in real‐time and offering automatic flood risk assessment for all districts every minute during rainy seasons. This paper briefly presents the design, key techniques, and warning products of FRAS. Its performance as an early warning service is also examined through objective verification results and user feedback. Flood Risk Assessment System (FRAS) was developed to enhance the community’s resilience in coping with extreme weather. The key technique adopted by FRAS is the use of a district‐scale ‘rainfall‐flooding impact’ statistical model, developed with historical flood and rainfall records. This paper presents the design, techniques, and performance of FRAS.
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd,John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
Subject
