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The relationship between moisture in the low level of the troposphere and seasonal precipitation over Iran
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The relationship between moisture in the low level of the troposphere and seasonal precipitation over Iran
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Journal Article
The relationship between moisture in the low level of the troposphere and seasonal precipitation over Iran
2025
Overview
This paper investigates the relationship between seasonal precipitation over Iran and low‐level moisture, in terms of vertically integrated specific humidity (VISH) from the surface to 850 hPa. The VISH is calculated from ERA5 data for the domain (10°N–60°N, 15°E–80°E), and the precipitation is calculated from 50 stations across Iran, both for the period 1968–2023. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied to examine the spatial–temporal relationship between seasonal averages of moisture and precipitation during January–March (JFM), April–Jun (AMJ), and October–December (OND). VISH and precipitation are considered as the simultaneous predictor and predictand fields in the CCA, respectively. The CCA time series are correlated to global sea surface temperatures to assess the connections to large‐scale, potentially predictable modes of variability. The CCA spatial patterns indicate that there is a strong relationship between low‐level moisture and seasonal precipitation, with VISH over the Persian Gulf, Oman Sea, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea positively correlated with precipitation over most areas of Iran, while VISH over the Caspian Sea and Black is negatively correlated. Generally, these relationships are notably low over northwestern areas of Iran and the coastal regions of the Caspian Sea and the prediction skill of CCA remains limited over these regions. In OND, the leading CCA time series exhibits the well‐known connection to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the highest CCA skill is found for JFM precipitation, which does not exhibit an ENSO connection, and so may present an additional source of skill. The first canonical pair of vertically integrated specific humidity (VISH) from the surface to 850 hPa and precipitation for the JFM season, with the VISH pattern in (a), the precipitation pattern in (b). This pair of spatial patterns indicates a positive association between the spatial pattern of the VISH over the Persian Gulf, Oman Sea, Arabian Sea, southern parts of Red Sea, and precipitation for JFM over most areas of Iran. However, the VISH over northern latitudes (38°N–60°N) has a negative association with JFM precipitation over most areas.
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd,John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
Subject
