Journal Article

Do US City Crime Rates Follow a National Trend? The Influence of Nationwide Conditions on Local Crime Patterns

Loftin, Colin, McDowall, David

2009

Overview

This study considers the degree to which the crime rates of US cities follow a uniform national trend. A nationwide trend has consequences for theories that explain aggregate changes in crime, but how closely subnational units hold to a common time path has received almost no research attention. Using annual panel data, the current study presents analyses that attempt to measure the correspondence between city-level and national-level crime rates. The results of each analysis are consistent with a clear single pattern that operates across the nation's major urban areas. This supports the idea that a meaningful national trend exists, and it suggests the desirability of continuing efforts to explain it.

• Publisher: Springer Science+Business Media,Springer US,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Cities / Crime / Crime patterns / Crime rate / Crime rates / Criminal justice / Criminal offenses / Criminal statistics / Criminology / Criminology and Criminal Justice / Homicide / Law and Criminology / Methodology of the Social Sciences / Original Paper / Panel data / Property crimes / Rape / Sociology / Statistical analysis / Statistics / Trends / Urban areas / Urban crime / Violent crimes