Journal Article

Improving the representation of sugarcane crop in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model for climate impact assessment

Challinor, Andrew J., Cabral, Osvaldo, Williams, Karina W., Hayman, Garry, Zeri, Marcelo, Marthews, Toby R., Cerri, Carlos Eduardo P., Marin, Fabio R., Vianna, Murilo S., Galdos, Marcelo V., Littleton, Emma W., Cuadra, Santiago V., De Jong van Lier, Quirijn

2022

Overview

Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision‐making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE parametrizations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and low‐water availability (CTW‐response). Both parametrizations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with a root mean squared error of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha−1 for stalk dry matter for JULES‐crop and JULES‐BE, respectively. The parametrizations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the years 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35°C become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production. In this study, we aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for the model, together with the crop response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and drought (CTW‐response). The model showed good agreement against highly monitored experiments and represented spatiotemporal pattern of sugarcane production across five Brazilian regions. We found an overall small positive trend in future yield projections for sugarcane, but an abrupt negative impact is expected if daytime temperatures above 35°C become more frequent.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Allometry / Atmospheric models / bioenergy / Biomass / Calibration / Carbon / Carbon dioxide / Climate change / climate impact / Climate models / Corn / Crop growth / Crops / Decision making / Dry matter / Dynamic models / Energy / Environmental impact / Experiments / Field tests / Food processing industry / General circulation models / Global warming / JULES model / land surface models / Moisture effects / Phenology / Renewable energy / Representations / Senescence / Simulation / Soil moisture / Soil water / Sugarcane / Vegetation / Water availability