Journal Article

Novel Deep Learning Transformer Model for Short to Sub‐Seasonal Streamflow Forecast

Lu, Dan, Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty, Tayal, Kshitij, Mishra, Vimal

2025

Overview

Accurate short‐to‐subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1‐ to 30‐day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real‐time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1‐day and 5.74 for 14‐day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process‐based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4‐day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate‐resilient decision‐making.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subject: Climate / Climate and weather / Decision making / Deep learning / Extreme weather / Flood forecasting / Forecast accuracy / Forecast improvement / Forecasting skill / Hydrologic data / Hydrologic models / Hydrologic processes / Lead time / Monitoring systems / Stream discharge / Stream flow / Streamflow data / Streamflow forecasting / Water management / Weather / Weather conditions