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Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe
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Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe
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Journal Article
Multi‐Model Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Summertime Climate Change in Europe
2025
Overview
Global and regional climate models (respectively GCMs and RCMs) are delivering conflicting messages about summertime climate change in Europe, revealing notably a weaker warming in RCMs. A dedicated multimodel ensemble of nine GCM‐RCM pairs is analyzed to assess the role of anthropogenic aerosols in these inconsistencies. The expected decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is found both to modify the future evolution of shortwave radiation and to generate an extra warming. For every tenth in aerosol optical depth drop in Central Europe, shortwave radiation is increased at the surface by 6.3 Wm−2$\\mathrm{W}{\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$and decreased at the top of the atmosphere by 5.6 Wm−2$\\mathrm{W}{\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$ , while near‐surface temperature is increased by 0.3°^{\\circ}$ C. The consideration of time‐varying anthropogenic aerosols in RCMs thus contributes to improving GCM/RCM consistency in Europe for these three variables, but not for water cycle. The results obtained underline the necessity to better consider aerosols in upcoming regional climate simulations. Plain Language Summary As far as summertime climate change in Europe is concerned, global and regional climate models do not provide exactly the same information, insofar as the warming simulated by regional models is notably lower than in global models. The decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, not always taken into account in regional models, could be one possible explanation of these inconsistencies. This hypothesis is analyzed here with the help of a dedicated multimodel ensemble of simulations with constant and evolving aerosols. This evolution of aerosols is shown to increase surface solar radiation and near‐surface temperature in Europe. The consideration of time‐varying anthropogenic aerosols in regional climate models thus contributes to reducing the differences between global and regional climate simulations. Key Points The role of anthropogenic aerosols in European summertime climate change is assessed using a set of multi‐model regional climate simulations Reduced concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols in Europe lead to an increase in surface solar radiation and an extra warming near surface Current differences in aerosol representation explain a part of inconsistencies between global and regional climate projections in Europe
