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Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific
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Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific
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Journal Article
Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific
2010
Overview
Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone （TC） formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on the peak-season （July-September） TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Nino years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20°N, especially east of 130°E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Nino years, while taking a more northward track in the La Nina years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks.
Publisher
SP Science Press,Springer Nature B.V
Subject
/ Cyclones
/ Earth and Environmental Science
/ El Nino
/ El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
/ ENSO事件
/ La Nina
/ 模拟比赛
/ 热带气旋
/ 西北太平洋
/ 轨道模型
