Journal Article

Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

De Luca, Paolo, Donat, Markus G.

2023

Overview

The impacts of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are significant for societies, economies, and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes over global land regions using 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and four future emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. Hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are projected to increase over large parts of the globe by the end of the 21st century. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases and dry extreme changes are sensitive to the index used. Many regional changes depend on the strength of greenhouse‐gas forcing, which highlights the potential to limit the changes with strong mitigation efforts. Plain Language Summary Heatwaves, drought and their joint occurrences can negatively impact populations, economies, and natural systems worldwide. It is therefore of paramount importance that governments and stakeholders assess the risk from such events and adapt accordingly. In this study we use 25 climate models and four emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100 to assess how hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes are expected to change in the future when compared to current climate conditions. We find that such extremes are projected to increase by the end of the 21st century over large parts of global land areas under the highest‐emission, no‐policy, climate change scenario. Hot and compound hot‐dry extremes show the most widespread increases, whereas dry extreme changes are sensitive and more regionally limited depending on the method by which they are computed. Most of the regional changes in hot, dry, and compound hot‐dry extremes can be reduced with strong climate change mitigation efforts to limit future green‐house gas emissions. Key Points Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over almost all land areas by the end of the 21st century Drought changes depend on measure but increase robustly over central and northern South America, the Mediterranean, and southern Africa Compound hot and dry extremes are sensitive to the drought measure but projected to increase in most regions globally

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: 21st century / Anthropogenic climate changes / Anthropogenic factors / Climate change / Climate change mitigation / Climate change scenarios / Climate models / Climatic conditions / CMIP6 / compound events / Drought / Emission analysis / Emissions / Heat waves / heatwaves / hot and dry extremes / Human influences / Impact analysis / Intercomparison / Mitigation / Ozone / projections