Journal Article

Changes in Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Arid Region of Northwestern China： Observation and Projection

Yujie WANG Botao ZHOU Dahe QIN Jia WU Rong GAO Lianchun SONG

2017

Overview

This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21 st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.

• Publisher: Science Press,Springer Nature B.V,Northwest Climate Center of Gansu Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China%National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China,School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China%National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
• Subject: Arid zones / Atmospheric Sciences / Climate and Weather Extremes / Climate change / Earth and Environmental Science / Earth Sciences / Extreme weather / Geophysics/Geodesy / Meteorology / Original Paper / Precipitation / Temperature effects