Publication

Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

FRICKO Oliver, BUSCH Sebastian, NICOLAS Claire, SCHOEPP Wolfgang, BOSETTI Valentina, SCHMITZ Andreas, HUPPMANN Daniel, PARKINSON Simon, KRIEGLER Elmar, IYER Gokul, RIAHI Keywan, FUJIMORI Shinichiro, FAY Marianne, DE BOER Harmen Sytze, VAN VUUREN Detlef, ROZENBERG Julie, RAFAJ Peter, ZHOU Wenji, EMMERLING Johannes, GIDDEN Matthew, POBLETE-CAZENAVE Miguel, HARMSEN J.H. Mathijs, DROUET Laurent, KREY Volker, BERTRAM Christoph, MCCOLLUM David, DESPRÉS Jacques, RAO Narasimha, PACHAURI Shonali

2018

Overview

Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals. The scale and nature of energy investments under diverging technology and policy futures is of great importance to decision makers. Here, a multi-model study projects investment needs under countries’ nationally determined contributions and in pathways consistent with achieving the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets as well as certain SDGs.

• Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP,Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
• Subject: 4000/4006 / 704/844/2787 / 706/4066 / Air quality / Carbon / Economics and Management / Energy / Energy Policy / Energy Storage / Energy Systems / Food security / Paris Agreement / Renewable and Green Energy / Sustainable development