Journal Article

Statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings using a large model ensemble

Ineson, Sarah, Dunstone, Nick J., Andrews, Martin B., Pang, Bo, Scaife, Adam A., Lockwood, Julia F.

2024

Overview

Using a large ensemble of initialised retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) from a seasonal prediction system, we explore various statistics relating to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Observations show that SSWs occur at a similar frequency during both El Niño and La Niña northern hemisphere winters. This is contrary to expectation, as the stronger stratospheric polar vortex associated with La Niña years might be expected to result in fewer of these extreme breakdowns. Here we show that this similar frequency may have occurred by chance due to the limited sample of years in the observational record. We also show that in these hindcasts, winters with two SSWs, a rare event in the observational record, on average have an increased surface impact. Multiple SSW events occur at a lower rate than expected if events were independent but somewhat surprisingly, our analysis also indicates a risk, albeit small, of winters with three or more SSWs, as yet an unseen event. Observed SSWs occur at a similar frequency during both El Niño and La Niña. This is contrary to expectation, as the stronger stratospheric polar vortex associated with La Niña might be expected to result in fewer of these extreme breakdowns. Using a large ensemble of initialised hindcasts from a seasonal prediction system, we show that this similar frequency may have occurred by chance due to the limited sample of years in the observational record. We also examine the impacts and likelihood of multiple SSW events.

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd,John Wiley & Sons, Inc,Wiley
• Subject: El Nino / El Nino phenomena / ensemble / ENSO / GloSea5 / La Nina / Northern Hemisphere / Polar vortex / SSW / Statistical analysis / Stratosphere / Stratospheric polar vortexes / Stratospheric vortices / Stratospheric warming / Vortices / Winter