Journal Article

Assessing greenhouse gas emissions of milk production: which parameters are essential?

de Boer, Imke J. M., Groen, Evelyne A., Heijungs, Reinout, Wolf, Patricia, Prochnow, Annette, Berg, Werner, Bokkers, Eddie A. M.

2017

Overview

Purpose Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of food products, such as dairy, require many input parameters that are affected by variability and uncertainty. Moreover, correlations may be present between input parameters, e.g. between feed intake and milk yield. The purpose of this study was to identify which input parameters are essential to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of milk production, while accounting for correlations between input parameters, and using a systematic approach. Methods Three diets corresponding to three grazing systems (zero-, restricted and unrestricted grazing) were selected, which were defined to aim for a milk yield of 10,000 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) cow −1  year −1 . First, a local sensitivity analysis was used to identify which parameters influence GHG emissions most. Second, a global sensitivity analysis was used to identify which parameters are most important to the output variance. The global analysis included correlations between feed intake and milk yield and between N fertilizer rates and crop yields. The local and global sensitivity analyses were combined to determine which parameters are essential . Finally, we analysed the effect of changing the most important correlation coefficient (between feed intake and milk yield) on the output variance and global sensitivity analysis. Results and discussion The total GHG emissions for 1 kg ECM ranged from 1.08 to 1.12 kg CO 2 e, depending on the grazing system. The local sensitivity analysis identified milk yield, feed intake, and the CH 4 emission factor of enteric fermentation of the cows as most influential parameters in the LCA model. The global sensitivity analysis identified the CH 4 emission factor of enteric fermentation, milk yield, feed intake and the direct N 2 O emission factor of crop cultivation as most important parameters. For both grazing systems, N 2 O emission factor for grazing also turned out to be important. In addition, the correlation coefficient between feed intake and milk yield turned out to be important. The systematic approach resulted in more parameters than previously found. Conclusions By combining a local and a global sensitivity analysis, parameters were determined which are essential to assess GHG emissions of milk production. These parameters are the CH 4 emission factor of enteric fermentation, milk yield, feed intake, the direct N 2 O emission factor of crop cultivation and the N 2 O emission factor for grazing. Future research should focus on reducing uncertainty and improving data quality of these essential parameters.

• Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg,Springer Nature B.V
• Subject: Carbon dioxide / Correlation / Correlation coefficient / cows / Crop yield / Cultivation / Dairy / Dairy products / diet / Earth and Environmental Science / Emission analysis / emissions factor / energy / Environment / Environmental Chemistry / Environmental Economics / Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology / feed intake / Feeds / Fermentation / foods / Grazing / greenhouse gas emissions / Greenhouse gases / Intakes / Life cycle analysis / Life cycle assessment / Mathematical models / Methane / Milk / Milk production / milk yield / Monte Carlo simulation / nitrogen fertilizers / Nitrous oxide / Parameter identification / Parameters / Product life cycle / Sensitivity analysis / Uncertainties in Lca / uncertainty / variance