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Using User- and Marketer-Generated Content for Box Office Revenue Prediction: Differences Between Microblogging and Third-Party Platforms
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Using User- and Marketer-Generated Content for Box Office Revenue Prediction: Differences Between Microblogging and Third-Party Platforms
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Journal Article
Using User- and Marketer-Generated Content for Box Office Revenue Prediction: Differences Between Microblogging and Third-Party Platforms
2019
Overview
How to improve the predictive accuracy of box office revenue with social media data is a big challenge and is particularly important for movie distributors and cinema operators. In this research, we find that microblogging UGC (MUGC) is a significant predictor of box office revenue and has stronger predictive power than UGC on Douban! Movies (DUGC) based on our examination of 60 movies released in China in 2012. To increase the attendance rate of movies, cinema operators can consider previous valence and volume of MUGC before scheduling the current film screenings because these messages can quickly predict the future box office revenue of a movie. Besides, we find that the volume of enterprise microblogs (i.e., MGC) can predict both box office revenue and MUGC, indicating that movie distributors should optimize their online media strategy by shifting more resources to utilizing enterprise microblogging. Although rebroadcasting volume from microblogging platforms does not predict box office revenue directly, it can indirectly predict it via MGC. Accordingly, compared with third-party platforms, rebroadcasting as one of the key distinct functions of microblogging platforms also shows its usefulness in box office revenue prediction. Overall, metrics from microblogging platforms are more effective in predicting box office revenue than those from third-party platforms.
In this research, we build a prediction model of movie box office revenue by empirically exploring its intricate relationships with user-generated content (UGC) as well as marketer-generated content (MGC) on a microblogging platform and UGC on a third-party platform. Our analyses are based on a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model that is calibrated with a combination of data from Weibo (microblogging platform) and Douban! Movies (third party). Our empirical results show that microblogging UGC (MUGC) is a significant predictor of box office revenue and has stronger predictive power than UGC on Douban! Movies (DUGC). In addition, we find that the volume of enterprise microblogs (i.e., MGC) predicts box office revenue directly and also indirectly via MUGC, and MUGC thus exerts a partial mediating effect on the predictive relationship between the volume of enterprise microblogs and box office revenue. Finally, a prediction model of box office revenue using lagged box office revenue, MGC, MUGC, and DUGC is proposed, and its forecasting accuracy is found to outperform that of existing models. Managerial implications on utilizing social media for enterprises are provided.
The e-companion is available at
https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2018.0797
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