Journal Article

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Shah, Melisa M, LaBeaud, A Desiree, Ayala, Efraín Beltrán, Damoah, Richard, Ngugi, Harun N, Anyamba, Assaf, Heras, Froilán Heras, Ndenga, Bryson A, Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M, Mordecai, Erin A, Grossi-Soyster, Elysse N, Lambin, Eric F, Mutuku, Francis M, Caldwell, Jamie M, Krystosik, Amy R, Sippy, Rachel, Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J, Ryan, Sadie J

2021

Overview

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

• Publisher: Nature Research,Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
• Subject: 631/158 / 631/158/1144 / 631/158/1469 / 631/158/2165 / 692/699/255 / Aedes aegypti / Animals / Aquatic insects / Basic Reproduction Number / Children / Climate Change / Climate effects / Climate models / Climate prediction / Context / Culicidae - physiology / Dengue fever / Disease / Disease Outbreaks / Dynamics / Ecuador - epidemiology / Epidemics / Geography / Humanities and Social Sciences / Humans / Infectious diseases / Kenya - epidemiology / Laboratories / Life Sciences (General) / Meteorology and Climatology / Models, Biological / Mosquitoes / multidisciplinary / Natural populations / Nonlinear Dynamics / open climate campaign / Outbreaks / Physiology / Population dynamics / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Socioeconomic Factors / Spatio-Temporal Analysis / Temporal variations / Time Factors / Vector Borne Diseases - epidemiology / Vector Borne Diseases - transmission / Vector-borne diseases / Vectors