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SVM方法在热带气旋风雨及温度预报中的应用
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Journal Article
SVM方法在热带气旋风雨及温度预报中的应用
2015
Overview
P49; 热带气旋的强弱和移动路径会直接影响到周围大气中气压、温度、露点等气象要素的变化.为更好地了解热带气旋对海口市的影响,通过收集影响海口市热带气旋关键因子,建立热带气旋风雨影响预报因子库,基于SVM方法对热带气旋在过程降水量、最大风速和平均温度进行趋势预报.结果表明,该方法对影响海口市热带气旋的过程降水量、最大风速和平均温度都有较好的预测效果,但对于超过 15 m/s 的最大风速和 200 mm以上降水量级上存在一定的偏差,这可能与SVM 模式中预报因子库中关键因子不全及模式的择中原理使结果趋于平均化相关.
Publisher
海口市气象局,海口,570100%海南省气象局,海口,570100
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