Journal Article

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Jeger, Michael John, Noteborn, Hubert, Koutsoumanis, Kostas, Hardy, Anthony, Turck, Dominique, Martino, Laura, Ricci, Antonia, Benford, Diane, Mosbach‐Schulz, Olaf, Halldorsson, Thorhallur, Naegeli, Hanspeter, Merten, Caroline, Knutsen, Helle Katrine, Rychen, Guido, Ossendorp, Bernadette, Ockleford, Colin, Hart, Andrew, Younes, Maged, Mortensen, Alicja, Von Goetz, Natalie, More, Simon, Craig, Peter, Silano, Vittorio, Schlatter, Josef R, Solecki, Roland

2018

Overview

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision‐making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail. This publication is linked to the following EFSA Journal article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122/full

• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc,European Food Safety Authority,John Wiley and Sons Inc,Wiley
• Subject: Assessments / Decision analysis / Decision making / guidance / Guidance Document / Life Sciences / Risk assessment / scientific assessment / Sensitivity analysis / Uncertainty analysis