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Real‐Time Individual Predictions of Prostate Cancer Recurrence Using Joint Models

by Proust-Lima, Cecile , Williams, Scott , Bae, Kyoungwha , Taylor, Jeremy M. G. , Ankerst, Donna P. , Sandler, Howard , Kestin, Larry , Pickles, Tom , Park, Yongseok

in Algorithms / antigens / Bayes Theorem / BIOMETRIC PRACTICE / Biometrics / biometry / Calculators / data collection / Datasets / Disease risks / Hormone therapy / Humans / Internet / Joint longitudinal-survival model / laboratory techniques / Male / Markov chain / Markov Chains / Medical tests / Modeling / Models, Statistical / Monte Carlo Method / Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - blood / Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - pathology / Online calculator / Parametric models / patients / Predicted probability / prediction / Predictive Value of Tests / Prostate cancer / Prostate-Specific Antigen - blood / prostatic neoplasms / Prostatic Neoplasms - blood / Prostatic Neoplasms - pathology / Prostatic Neoplasms - radiotherapy / PSA / Radiation therapy / Radiotherapy / Real time / risk / Statistical models / Statistics / Survival Analysis

2013

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Real‐Time Individual Predictions of Prostate Cancer Recurrence Using Joint Models

by Proust-Lima, Cecile , Williams, Scott , Bae, Kyoungwha , Taylor, Jeremy M. G. , Ankerst, Donna P. , Sandler, Howard , Kestin, Larry , Pickles, Tom , Park, Yongseok

2013

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Real‐Time Individual Predictions of Prostate Cancer Recurrence Using Joint Models

by Proust-Lima, Cecile , Williams, Scott , Bae, Kyoungwha , Taylor, Jeremy M. G. , Ankerst, Donna P. , Sandler, Howard , Kestin, Larry , Pickles, Tom , Park, Yongseok

2013

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Journal Article

Real‐Time Individual Predictions of Prostate Cancer Recurrence Using Joint Models

Proust-Lima, Cecile,

Williams, Scott,

Bae, Kyoungwha,

Taylor, Jeremy M. G.,

Ankerst, Donna P.,

Sandler, Howard,

Kestin, Larry,

Pickles, Tom,

Park, Yongseok

2013

Overview

Patients who were previously treated for prostate cancer with radiation therapy are monitored at regular intervals using a laboratory test called Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA). If the value of the PSA test starts to rise, this is an indication that the prostate cancer is more likely to recur, and the patient may wish to initiate new treatments. Such patients could be helped in making medical decisions by an accurate estimate of the probability of recurrence of the cancer in the next few years. In this article, we describe the methodology for giving the probability of recurrence for a new patient, as implemented on a web‐based calculator. The methods use a joint longitudinal survival model. The model is developed on a training dataset of 2386 patients and tested on a dataset of 846 patients. Bayesian estimation methods are used with one Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm developed for estimation of the parameters from the training dataset and a second quick MCMC developed for prediction of the risk of recurrence that uses the longitudinal PSA measures from a new patient.

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Publisher

Blackwell Publishers,Blackwell Publishing Ltd,Wiley-Blackwell

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