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Pneumococcal population dynamics: Investigating vaccine-induced changes through multiscale modelling
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Pneumococcal population dynamics: Investigating vaccine-induced changes through multiscale modelling
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Journal Article
Pneumococcal population dynamics: Investigating vaccine-induced changes through multiscale modelling
2023
Overview
The mechanisms behind vaccine-induced strain replacement in the pneumococcus remain poorly understood. There is emerging evidence that distinct pneumococcal lineages can co-colonise for significant time periods, and that novel recombinants can readily emerge during natural colonisation. Despite this, patterns of post-vaccine replacement are indicative of competition between specific lineages. Here, we develop a multiscale transmission model to investigate explicitly how within host dynamics shape observed ecological patterns, both pre- and post-vaccination. Our model framework explores competition between and within strains defined by distinct antigenic, metabolic and resistance profiles. We allow for strains to freely co-colonise and recombine within hosts, and consider how each of these types may contribute to a strain’s overall fitness. Our results suggest that antigenic and resistance profiles are key drivers of post-vaccine success.
Publisher
Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
