Journal Article

Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions

Gerber, James S., Butler, Ethan E., Kim, Soo-Hyung, Shim, Kyo-Moon, Resop, Jonathan P., Timlin, Dennis J., Mueller, Nathaniel D., Yun, Kyungdahm, Reddy, Vangimalla R., Jeong, Jig Han, Fleisher, David H.

2016

Overview

Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

• Publisher: Public Library of Science,Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subject: Agricultural development / Agricultural policy / Agricultural production / Agriculture / Analysis / Benchmarks / Biology and Life Sciences / Classification / Climate change / Corn / Corn silage / Crop yield / Crop yields / Crops / Crops, Agricultural / Data analysis / Data processing / Ecology and Environmental Sciences / Editors / Forests / Gene expression / Grain / Influence / Laboratories / Learning algorithms / Machine Learning / Model testing / Models, Theoretical / Performance evaluation / Physical Sciences / Potatoes / Predictions / Production capacity / Regional analysis / Regional development / Regression analysis / Research and Analysis Methods / Root-mean-square errors / Solanum tuberosum / Statistical analysis / Temperature effects / Training / Trends / Triticum aestivum / Underserved populations / Wheat / Zea mays