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气候变化影响下昌都市高原鼠兔潜在地理分布及其驱动因素分析
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气候变化影响下昌都市高原鼠兔潜在地理分布及其驱动因素分析
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Journal Article
气候变化影响下昌都市高原鼠兔潜在地理分布及其驱动因素分析
2025
Overview
Q958.1; 明确高原鼠兔(Ochotona curzoniae)的地理分布及其驱动因素,对于深入理解其在生态系统中的作用意义重大.本研究基于昌都市的高原鼠兔分布点数据与环境变量,使用最大熵模型与地理探测器模型相结合的方法,对当前和未来昌都市高原鼠兔在4种气候情景(当前、2050年3种共享社会经济路径SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)下的潜在分布进行预测.结果表明:平均气温日较差(Bio2)、等温性(Bio3)、最干月降水量(Bio14)和最冷季度降水量(Bio19)是影响昌都市高原鼠兔潜在分布的主要环境变量.在当前气候情景下,高原鼠兔的高适宜区、次适宜区及非适宜区面积分别为2.59×104、3.48×104、4.92×104 km2.与当前气候情景相比,未来30年不同气候路径下的适宜区面积均发生变化,高适宜区预计由当前的2.59×104 km2,分别变动到2.84×104 km2(SSP1-2.6)、6.67×104 km2(SSP2-4.5)和3.88×104 km2(SSP5-8.5).本研究结果可为昌都市高原鼠兔的野外普查、早期预警、科学监测及有效防控提供理论依据与实践参考.
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