Journal Article

Quantitative assessment of influencing factors and socio-economic impacts of net primary productivity in the Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Project Areas, Ningxia

FENG Kepeng, YANG Zhao, FENG Xiong

2025

Overview

【Objective】 Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key indicator of ecosystem carbon cycle. It is influenced by both climate change and human activities. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPP from 1983 to 2021 in the Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Areas of Ningxia, distinguishes the contributions of climate change from human activities to NPP.【Method】Using the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model, scenario simulations, structural equation model (SEM), and a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we assessed the NPP trends, identified key influencing factors, and explored the interactions between NPP, socio-economic factors and irrigation infrastructures.【Result】① NPP in the region increased significantly during the study period, with an average annual growth rate of 10.95 g/(m2·a). Human activities were the dominant influencing factor, contributing 70.27% to the NPP changes, compared to 29.73% from climate changes. ② Among climate-related factors, precipitation, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and irrigation water most strongly influenced NPP. In human factors, irrigation water and soil moisture were the key drivers. ③ Socio-economic development positively influenced NPP, while the irrigation projects significantly boosted socio-economic progresses, indirectly enhancing NPP. 【Conclusion】 NPP in the study areas shows noticeably spatiotemporal variation, driven mainly by human activities and water-temperature conditions. The Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Project plays a vital role in supporting both ecological health and economic development in these areas.

• Publisher: Science Press
• Subject: net primary productivity; structural equation model; vector autoregression model; yellow river water- pumping irrigation