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USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO CREATE A RANKED CHECK LIST OF RISKS IN A PORTFOLIO OF RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
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USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO CREATE A RANKED CHECK LIST OF RISKS IN A PORTFOLIO OF RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
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Journal Article
USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO CREATE A RANKED CHECK LIST OF RISKS IN A PORTFOLIO OF RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
2017
Overview
When introducing quantified risk assessments at a South African state-owned freight company, a skills gap was found during the identification and quantified risk analysis. To help with risk identification, a checklist of risks for railway construction projects was developed. The basis of this checklist was 38 individual railway construction project risk registers that were collated into a single risk register. After the risks had been cleaned up and classified, a Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software was done that produced a ranked check list of risks. This list of risks is valuable because subject matter experts developed it, and can be used as a risk identification checklist by stakeholders in similar projects. The simulation results also showed that project scope is an influencing factor on the ranking of risks.
Publisher
South African Institute for Industrial Engineering,The Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering,Stellenbosch University
Subject
