Journal Article

Ecological Niche Modeling of IAedes/I and ICulex/I Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia

Simubali, Limonty, Simulundu, Edgar, Chisenga, Caroline Cleopatra, Tembo, John, Simuunza, Ma, Chisola, Moses Ngongo, Simunyandi, Michelo, Velu, Rachel Milomba, Mburu, Monicah Mirai, Orba, Yasuko, Bosomprah, Samuel, Kwenda, Geoffrey, Sawa, Hirofumi, Sande, Nicholus Chintu, Bates, Matthew, Bumbangi, Flavien Nsoni, Chilengi, Roma

2023

Overview

The circulation of both West Nile Virus (WNV) and Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in humans and animals, coupled with a favorable tropical climate for mosquito proliferation in Zambia, call for the need for a better understanding of the ecological and epidemiological factors that govern their transmission dynamics in this region. This study aimed to examine the contribution of climatic variables to the distribution of Culex and Aedes mosquito species, which are potential vectors of CHIKV, WNV, and other arboviruses of public-health concern. Mosquitoes collected from Lusaka as well as from the Central and Southern provinces of Zambia were sorted by species within the Culex and Aedes genera, both of which have the potential to transmit viruses. The MaxEnt software was utilized to predict areas at risk of WNV and CHIKV based on the occurrence data on mosquitoes and environmental covariates. The model predictions show three distinct spatial hotspots, ranging from the high-probability regions to the medium- and low-probability regions. Regions along Lake Kariba, the Kafue River, and the Luangwa Rivers, as well as along the Mumbwa, Chibombo, Kapiri Mposhi, and Mpika districts were predicted to be suitable habitats for both species. The rainfall and temperature extremes were the most contributing variables in the predictive models.

• Publisher: MDPI AG
• Subject: Chikungunya virus / Distribution / Environmental aspects / Insects as carriers of disease / Mosquitoes / Niche (Ecology) / Virus-vector relationships / West Nile virus