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基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究
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基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究
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Journal Article
基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究
2022
Overview
目前区域降雨型滑坡预测主要依赖降雨阈值开展, 然而从降雨诱发滑坡机理可知, 除降雨入渗导致的土壤含水量变化外, 降雨入渗前的土壤含水量也是影响边坡失稳的重要因素, 无法考虑降雨入渗前的土壤湿度情况, 被认为是降雨阈值在滑坡预测中表现差的主要原因。针对这一问题, 本文以四川省都江堰地区作为试验区域, 提出考虑前期土壤湿度的区域降雨型滑坡预测思路, 通过统计分析历史滑坡数据, 构建了基于前期土壤湿度和近期降雨情况的水文-气象阈值模型, 其中前期土壤湿度情况由改进的前期有效降雨指数刻画, 近期降雨情况由最近的累积降雨量表示。试验结果表明: 在试验区域的降雨型滑坡预测中, 水文-气象阈值模型表现出较好的命中率和较低的误报率。本文构建的水文-气象阈值模型, 可同时考虑前期土壤湿度和近期降雨对滑坡发生的影响, 模型所需数据少、所用方法简单易操作且预测性能较优, 适合在区域降雨型滑坡预测中推广应用。
Publisher
Surveying and Mapping Press,江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023%南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京 210023,虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室(南京师范大学) ,江苏南京210023,虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室(南京师范大学) ,江苏南京210023%南京邮电大学地理与生物信息学院,江苏南京210023,南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏 南京 210023
Subject
