Journal Article

Property investment: portfolio modelling

French, Nick, Patrick, Michael

2023

Overview

PurposeThe aim of this briefing is to look at the often overlooked impact of gearing (or leverage) on risk. The positive impact on equity return in a strong market is gained by increasing the overall risk of the investment and potentially negative impacts on returns in weak markets.Design/methodology/approachThis Education Briefing is an explanation of how the addition of individual assets to a portfolio can, with gearing, impact upon the portfolio risk/return profile.FindingsThrough a simple example, this briefing shows how geared portfolios can struggle in poor markets when the servicing of the debt (at increased interest rates) can have a severe negative impact upon returns.Practical implicationsThe process of borrowing at a bank rate below the return rate on an investment project can increase the equity return of the project as long as all incomes and interest rate remain at appropriate levels but when incomes fall or disappear and/or interest rates rise, the implication for the assets return and/or solvency can be highly significant.Originality/valueThis is a review of existing models.

• Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
• Subject: Cash flow forecasting / Debt financing / Debt service / Equity / Interest rates / Internal rate of return / International finance / Investments / Investors / Net present value / Pandemics / Payback periods / Tax rates / Variables