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Impact of Energy Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Industrial Production for G7 Countrices in Times of Russia-Ukraine War
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Impact of Energy Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Industrial Production for G7 Countrices in Times of Russia-Ukraine War
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Journal Article
Impact of Energy Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Industrial Production for G7 Countrices in Times of Russia-Ukraine War
2023
Overview
For the purpose of to examine the long-term effects of energy price shocks and economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and industrial production in times of Russia-Ukraine war, this paper applies days data from January 30, 2022, to April 30, 2022 in G7 Countrices, namely US, UK, Japan, Italy, France, Canada, and Germany. We use the dynamic macro-panel estimators, which include pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG), dynamic fixed effects (DFE), and Based on the Hausman h test, the estimated result shows that PMG is the most effective estimator among the three. The results from the PMG model show that energy price shocks (crude oil, natural gas) have a significant positive (demand-driven link) with crude oil prices and a negative (supplydriven link) with natural gas prices in both the short and long terms. This shows that an increase in the price of crude oil and natural gas can cause changes in industrial production. Findings also indicate that fluctuations in the worldwide market energy price will be caused by changes in economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
Publisher
جامعة زيان عاشور بالجلفة - كلية العلوم الاقتصادية والتجارية وعلوم التسيير
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