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An Examination of the Effect of Exchange Rates on Food Security
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Journal Article
An Examination of the Effect of Exchange Rates on Food Security
2025
Overview
Purpose: This paper addresses the effect of exchange rate on accessibility of sufficient nutritious food, or in other word, its effect on food security in Egypt without any moderator during the period (2000 - 2022). Design/methodology/approach: The research has used Dicky Fuller test of stationarity, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing framework, using the variables of exchange rate, per capita food supply variability, and some control variables, that shape the model like gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate. Thus, to examine the hypothesis of the study which are as follows: 1. Exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect food security in Egypt. 2. The weaker national currency negatively impacts food security in Egypt. Findings: The analysis reveals significant statistical effects of various factors on food security (PCFS) at the 5% significance level. Specifically, for every 1 unit increase in exchange rate (EXR), PCFS increases by 0.2603 units (p-value ≥ 0.05). Similarly, a 1 unit increase in inflation (INF) leads to a 0.0001 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≥ 0.05). Conversely, an increase of 1 unit in interest rate (INT) results in a decrease of 0.001 units in PCFS (p-value ≥ 0.05), while a decrease of 1 unit in unemployment (UNEM) corresponds to a 0.364 unit decrease in PCFS (p-value ≥ 0.05). Finaly, an increase of 1 unit in gross domestic product (GDP) contributes to a 0.273 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≥ 0.05). Originality/value: There are many studies that investigate the influence of foreign exchange rate on the accessibility of sufficient healthy food, although some of them have attempted to figure out and determine this effect on food prices. So, this paper concerns this matter with a focus on the Egyptian economy. The paper is important as it put the shades on the impact of changing foreign exchange rates, that has government attention, on the national security of Egypt represented by food security, and it also suggests some policies that solve this problem like the policies that encourage local agricultural growth, and so forth.
Publisher
جامعة بورسعيد - كلية التجارة
Subject
