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Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt
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Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt
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Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt
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Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt
Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt
Journal Article

Is the Export Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Egypt

2010
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Overview
يتمثل موضوع الدراسة في أن الصادرات تعتبر أحد العوامل المؤثرة في معدل النمو باعتبارها محفزة للنمو الاقتصادي وذلك وفقا للعديد من النماذج الاقتصادية، ولعل من أهمها نموذج Dritsakis's model (2004). والجدير بالذكر أن البترول والغاز الطبيعي يشكلان حوالي 50% من حصيلة الصادرات السلعية المصرية في مصر وما يقرب من عشر الناتج المحلي الإجمالي. هدفت الدراسة إلى اختبار صحة فرضية الصادرات تقود النمو ELG Hypothesis علي مستوى التحليل القياسي الكلي بالنسبة لمصر. وتوصلت الدراسة إلى صحة الفرضية في النموذج المصري. وكان من نتائجها أن تستثمر حصيلة النقد الأجنبي المتدفق لمصر جراء تصدير الثروات الاستخراجية غير المتجددة- ومنها الغاز الطبيعي- في استثمارات لها قوى دفع أمامية وخلفية مثل الصناعات الثقيلة والبتروكيماوية بحيث تلعب صادرات هذه الصناعات- بالإضافة إلى كونها بنية أساسية للاقتصاد المصري- الدور الرئيسي كقاطرة تقود النمو الاقتصادي لتحقيق تنمية طويلة المدى.