Journal Article

China＇s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective

蔡昉

2016

Overview

This paper creates an analytical framework for ongoing China＇s economic slowdown and reveals the major.factors affecting potential growth rate. First, proceeding from the factors that led to a decline in China ＇s potential growth rate, this paper demonstrates that the slowdown since 2012 is not caused by demand-side shock.s＇ but is a natural result of the demographic transition and the change of economic development stage that stemmed from supply-side factors. It is therefore suggested that the demand- side perspective for cyclical analysis must be abandoned and the supply-side perspective for growth analysis ought to be followed Secondly, this paper argues that it is theoretically unjounded and empirically unconvincing for existing literature based on the growth perspective to simply apply the statistical pattern of ＂regression towards the mean＂ to forecast China ＇s growth outlook and thus arrive at pessimistic conclusions. On this basis, this paper identifies a host of initiatives that can significantly increase potential growth rates and proposes policy recommendations for deriving reform dividends foom supply-side structural reform.

• Subject: 中国经济 / 供给 / 周期性 / 增长率 / 经济发展 / 经济增长 / 统计模式 / 需求方