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济南市1997―2014年农业水足迹及结构变化特征分析
by
杨裕恒 曹升乐 程雨菲 李晶莹 付雅君
in
VAR模型
/ 农业水足迹
/ 方差分解
/ 济南市
/ 脉冲响应函数
2017
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济南市1997―2014年农业水足迹及结构变化特征分析
by
杨裕恒 曹升乐 程雨菲 李晶莹 付雅君
in
VAR模型
/ 农业水足迹
/ 方差分解
/ 济南市
/ 脉冲响应函数
2017
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Journal Article
济南市1997―2014年农业水足迹及结构变化特征分析
2017
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Overview
为了研究地区农业用水总量与用水结构动态变化响应关系,深化调控农业产业结构与农业用水结构,基于水足迹理论,采用VAR(2)模型建立了脉冲响应函数以及方差分解,研究了济南市1997―2014年农业水足迹变化情况以及农业水足迹构成之间的响应关系。结果表明,济南市农业绿水、蓝水、灰水足迹呈现逐年递增趋势,其中1997―2009年为快速上升阶段,2009―2014年为平稳上升阶段;种植业水足迹与农业水足迹之间不存在黏滞性,渔业水足迹与农业水足迹之间存在负响应关系;影响济南市农业水足迹的重要因素依次为种植业水足迹、畜牧业水足迹、林业水足迹、渔业水足迹。总之,通过适当减少高耗水种植业和畜牧业生产、增加渔业产品产量、制定长期的农业用水规划,并进一步优化农业用水结构,方可实现农业水资源的可持续利用与发展。
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