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西藏林芝黑颈鹤越冬地潜在威胁的模型分析
by
韩雪松 郭玉民
in
MAXENT
/ 林芝
/ 栖息地选择偏好
/ 水位上升
/ 西藏
/ 越冬栖息地
/ 黑颈鹤
2018
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西藏林芝黑颈鹤越冬地潜在威胁的模型分析
by
韩雪松 郭玉民
in
MAXENT
/ 林芝
/ 栖息地选择偏好
/ 水位上升
/ 西藏
/ 越冬栖息地
/ 黑颈鹤
2018
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Journal Article
西藏林芝黑颈鹤越冬地潜在威胁的模型分析
2018
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Overview
黑颈鹤(Grus nigricollis)是青藏高原的特有鹤类,其目前已知最大的越冬栖息地位于我国的西藏自治区。根据以往调查,约6000只黑颈鹤越冬于西藏的雅鲁藏布江中上游河谷以及拉萨河—彭波河谷地区,而仅有少量个体在林芝地区越冬。2016~2017年,对西藏东部雅鲁藏布江下游湿地进行调查时,在位于林芝地区的尼洋河与雅鲁藏布江汇合处的 “T” 型河谷地带记录到527只黑颈鹤在沙洲及江岸农田中集群越冬,总数约占该物种全球种群的5.0%。两年的连续观察中记录到该越冬种群幼体新增率分别为8.64%和6.64%,这或许意味着该种群在其对应的繁殖地及迁徙停歇地受到威胁。建立MAXENT模型,发现海拔为影响研究区域内黑颈鹤栖息地选择的最主要环境因素,且其潜在栖息地主要位于海拔在2920 m的地区,总面积约为131.98 km2,因此,若假设不同强度的干扰使得水位以5 m为单位上升,黑颈鹤的潜在越冬栖息地将依次减少至当前栖息地面积的54.42%(2925 m),42.72%(2930 m),31.71%(2935 m),22.33%(2940 m),14.86%(2945 m)以及9.03%(2950 m)。鉴于该越冬栖息地生境狭窄的特殊性,因气候变化或人类活动所引起的水位上升将会对黑颈鹤该越冬种群的生存产生不可逆转的影响。
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