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Estimating the Perceived Returns to College
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Journal Article
Estimating the Perceived Returns to College
2018
Overview
The primary determinant of an individual's college attendance is their perceived return to college. I develop a method for inferring agents' perceived returns to college from observed attendance decisions without fully specifying their knowledge of actual returns. Using NLSY79 data, I estimate a distribution of perceived returns with an order of magnitude lower standard deviation than has been estimated with methods that specify agents' knowledge of returns. My results suggest that a universal annual tuition subsidy of $1,000 would increase college attendance by 2.6%, which is consistent with estimates of e ects of student aid policies on attendance from natural experiments.
Publisher
National Tax Association
