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The Growth-Volatility Relationship: What Does Volatility Decomposition Tell?
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Paper
The Growth-Volatility Relationship: What Does Volatility Decomposition Tell?
2017
Overview
This paper revisits the empirical relationship between volatility and long-run growth, but the key contribution lies in decomposing growth volatility into its business-cycle and trend components. This volatility decomposition also accounts for enormous heterogeneity among countries in terms of their long-run growth trajectories. We identify a negative effect of trend volatility, which we refer to as long-run volatility, on growth, but no effect of business-cycle volatility. However, if long-run volatility is omitted, there would be a spurious (negative) effect of business-cycle volatility. Our results draw attention to a crucial question about different volatility measures and their implications in macroeconomic analyses.
Publisher
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Subject
