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Interregional Integration Of Wheat Markets In Kazakhstan
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Interregional Integration Of Wheat Markets In Kazakhstan
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Interregional Integration Of Wheat Markets In Kazakhstan
Interregional Integration Of Wheat Markets In Kazakhstan
Paper

Interregional Integration Of Wheat Markets In Kazakhstan

2005
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Overview
Reliable marketing opportunities in both interregional and international trade along with relatively low transportation [and transaction] costs are essential to profitability of wheat production. In this study we have investigated one aspect of the quality of marketing and trade opportunities in the Kazakh wheat sector, that is the extent and nature of integration among regional wheat markets. We applied threshold cointegration technique to assess the co-movement between time series of elevator prices at three grain-trading (and producing) spots in the northern and central parts of the country. Results suggest that markets of two northern grain trading spots (Petropavlovsk and Kokshetau) are closely connected with each other while their connection with Karaganda in central Kazakhstan is much weaker. Here, levelling out of price gaps through arbitrage trade only occurs after a threshold of considerable extent has been surpassed. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Eine wichtige Voraussetzung fur die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Getreideproduktion sind verlassliche Vermarktungswege, die interregionalen und internationalen Handel zu relativ geringen Transport- und Transaktionskosten zulassen. Die Studie behandelt die Integration regionaler Weizenmarkte miteinander und beleuchtet damit, wie reibungslos Getreidehandel zwischen diesen Regionen moglich ist. Mit Hilfe von Verfahren der threshold cointegration analysis werden Zusammenhange in den Preisentwicklungen zwischen drei wichtigen Handelsplatzen in Nordund Zentralkasachstan untersucht. Die Markte der beiden nordlichen Marktorte Petropavlovsk und Kokshetau stehen in enger Verbindung zueinander, wahrend sie wesentlich unabhangiger von den Marktentwickungen im zentralkasachischen Karaganda sind. Ein Ausgleich von Preisunterschieden zwischen den nordlichen Markten und Karaganda findet erst statt, wenn diese Unterschiede einen betrachtlichen Schwellenwert (threshold) ubersteigen.
Publisher
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis