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How much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19? Some insight based on an age-differentiated compartmental model
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How much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19? Some insight based on an age-differentiated compartmental model
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Paper
How much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19? Some insight based on an age-differentiated compartmental model
2020
Overview
In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent symptom severity, and 3) testing and hospitalization delays; the model's parameters are chosen based on medical evidence, and, for concreteness, adapted to the German situation. Then, optimal mass-testing and age-dependent social-distancing policies are determined by solving optimal control problems both in open loop and within a model predictive control framework. We aim to minimize testing and/or social distancing until herd immunity sets in under a constraint on the number of available intensive care units. We find that an early and short lockdown is inevitable but can be slowly relaxed over the following months.
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Subject
