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The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models
The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models
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The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models
The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models

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The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models
The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models
Journal Article

The importance of the standard and interquartile range in BİST100 index return volatility modelling: The conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models

2022
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Overview
Finansal yatırım kararı alınırken ve risk yönetimi kapsamında politikalar belirlenirken göz önünde bulundurulması gereken en önemli kavram “risk” kavramıdır. Gelecekte karşılaşılabilecek farklı risk düzeylerinin uygun yöntemle öngörülmesi, bu risklere karşı hazırlıklı olunması ve doğru kararlar alınması açısından büyük öneme sahiptir. Doğru öngörülerde bulunabilmek ise ancak, istatistiksel performansı en yüksek modellerin belirlenmesiyle münkündür. Çalışmada, 3 Ocak 2011 – 24 Temmuz 2020 dönemi BIST100 endeksi haftalık verilerine dayalı olarak endeks getiri volatilitesi tahminlerini elde etmek ve istatistiksel performansı en yüksek modeli belirlemek amacıyla simetrik ve asimetrik modeller arasından seçilen getiri bazlı “ARCH (1) Modeli” ve değişim genişliği bazlı “Koşullu Otoregresif Değişim Genişliği Modelleri (KODGM)” tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda, BIST100 getiri volatilitesi tahmininde kullanılabilecek en uygun modelin, hataların Weibull dağılımı izlediği, kaldıraç etkisinin dikkate alındığı ve aşırı değerlere karşı dirençli olan “Kartiller Arası Değişim Genişliği” ölçüsüne dayalı olarak tahmin edilen “WKODGX (1,1) Modeli” olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Tüm bulgular birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, değişim genişliği bazlı modellerin, BIST100 endeks getirisi volatilite modellemesinde istatistiksel performansı belirgin bir biçimde iyileştirdiği sonucuna varılmıştır.
Publisher
Ali Çağlar Çakmak
Subject

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