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Predicting Common Buckthorn Distribution across Multiple Scales in New York State Using Maxent and Boosted Regression Tree Modelling
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Predicting Common Buckthorn Distribution across Multiple Scales in New York State Using Maxent and Boosted Regression Tree Modelling
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Predicting Common Buckthorn Distribution across Multiple Scales in New York State Using Maxent and Boosted Regression Tree Modelling
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Dissertation
Predicting Common Buckthorn Distribution across Multiple Scales in New York State Using Maxent and Boosted Regression Tree Modelling
2022
Overview
Common Buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica) is a woody plant species that is a prolific invader of half of North American including much of New York State. While some aspects of Buckthorn’s ecological niche have been revealed through floral surveys and mesocosm experiments, Buckthorn’s presence has not been statistically evaluated based upon its environmental explanatory variables. In order to better understand Buckthorn’s response to environmental variables as well as determine the roles that Habitat Suitability, Propagule Pressure, and Invasional Meltdown have on influencing Buckthorn’s distribution, it is imperative to generate species distribution models. Within this study, Boosted Regression Tree modelling of Buckthorn abundance in 160 plots around Geneseo, NY and Maxent modelling of Buckthorn presence in 512,327 plots across New York State were applied to test Buckthorn’s response to environmental variables. Additionally, paired-plots near Geneseo, NY were compared to determine which in site factors best control Buckthorn’s relative abundance. The results of the study show that Buckthorn is most likely to be present in moist, well-drained, flat areas that are closer to disturbed/developed areas, and that Buckthorn’s distribution is best explained by the theories of Invasional Meltdown and Propagule Pressure. As for Buckthorn’s relative abundance within site, the results indicate that a complex combination of higher competitive ability mixed with increased Propagule Pressure best explains the higher amount of Buckthorn. Overall, the results of both models indicate that the areas of highest concern would be near to major cities and highways in flat moist areas, especially where the native ash trees have been decimated by emerald ash borer. Despite high agreement between model environmental explanatory variables, Buckthorn predicted presence greatly differs from between geographic scales in which the NYS-scale model is not able to accurately predict Buckthorn Presence at the smaller Geneseo-scale and thus management would require additional survey efforts at the plot level.
