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An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
by
Polster, Jan
, Mertes, Gert
, bes, Richard
, Hahner, Sara
, Raoult, Baudouin
, Cook, Harrison
, Ana Prieto Nemesio
, Alexe, Mihai
, Moldovan, Gabriel
, Zied Ben Bouallègue
, Clare, Mariana
, Magnusson, Linus
, Chantry, Matthew
, O'Brien, Cathal
, Theissen, Helen
, de Rosnay, Patricia
, Pinnington, Ewan
, Dramsch, Jesper
, Pinault, Florian
, Lang, Simon
, Mario Santa Cruz
in
Constraints
/ Weather forecasting
2025
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An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
by
Polster, Jan
, Mertes, Gert
, bes, Richard
, Hahner, Sara
, Raoult, Baudouin
, Cook, Harrison
, Ana Prieto Nemesio
, Alexe, Mihai
, Moldovan, Gabriel
, Zied Ben Bouallègue
, Clare, Mariana
, Magnusson, Linus
, Chantry, Matthew
, O'Brien, Cathal
, Theissen, Helen
, de Rosnay, Patricia
, Pinnington, Ewan
, Dramsch, Jesper
, Pinault, Florian
, Lang, Simon
, Mario Santa Cruz
in
Constraints
/ Weather forecasting
2025
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An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
by
Polster, Jan
, Mertes, Gert
, bes, Richard
, Hahner, Sara
, Raoult, Baudouin
, Cook, Harrison
, Ana Prieto Nemesio
, Alexe, Mihai
, Moldovan, Gabriel
, Zied Ben Bouallègue
, Clare, Mariana
, Magnusson, Linus
, Chantry, Matthew
, O'Brien, Cathal
, Theissen, Helen
, de Rosnay, Patricia
, Pinnington, Ewan
, Dramsch, Jesper
, Pinault, Florian
, Lang, Simon
, Mario Santa Cruz
in
Constraints
/ Weather forecasting
2025
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An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
Paper
An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS
2025
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Overview
We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints through bounding layers, an updated training schedule, and an expanded set of variables. The physical constraints substantially improve precipitation forecasts and the new variables show a high level of skill. Upper-air headline scores also show improvement over the previous AIFS version. The AIFS has been fully operational at ECMWF since the 25th of February 2025.
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Subject
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