Paper

Real-Time In Silico Modeling of Postprandial Macronutrient Kinetics: A Validated Computational Engine for Nutrition Research and Digital Health

Calderone, Alberto

2026

Overview

Simulation of post-prandial pharmacokinetics, such as muscle protein synthesis (MPS) through mTORC1 and insulin-induced glucose uptake, is often challenging due to the computational intensity of the multi-compartmental approach. In this study, I introduce an in silico metabolic simulator that uses bi-compartmental Bateman kinetic processes, gamma-variate distributions, and finite state machine reasoning to solve temporal differential equations instantaneously, generating metabolic curves and predictions depending on input meals. The novel underlying algorithm was custom-built entirely independent of third-party libraries or external services. This original computational engine, bridging the gap between academia and the digital health sector, is integrated within a web dashboard and provided as a service via REST APIs. The average response time is approximately 135 ms with a maximum below 750 ms. The multi-dimensional model was calibrated using a Landmark Validation approach across diverse dietary conditions (Whey Protein, mixed meal, OGTT) and optimized via Grid Search. Ultimately, the system achieved a global physiologically optimal Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of \\(18\\%\\) while maintaining an algorithmic complexity of \\(O(n n)\\).

• Publisher: Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
• Subject: Differential equations / Digital health / Finite state machines / Meals / Metabolism / Nutrition research / Protein synthesis / Proteins