Journal Article

Can The U.S. Economy Survive A Few Nuclear Wapons?

Sastry, M Anjali, Romm, Joseph J, Tsipis, Kosta

1989

Overview

While the US could survive a \"small\" nuclear attack, the collapse of the economy could cause 50% of the survivors to die from starvation. Nuclear war-fighting strategies usually focus attacks on such key industries as oil facilities, whose destruction would halt nationwide transportation. The effect of a temporary transportation collapse on the US economy was examined using a 1980 computer model commissioned by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency. Based on the model, an attack on liquid-fuel facilities would kill only 10% of the population outright, but would lead to shortages of energy, transportation, and food that could cause mass starvation and economic collapse over the next 2 or 3 years. The study reveals that an effective deterrent need comprise fewer than 1,000 nuclear weapons. The findings also suggest the Strategic Defense Initiative is a worthless expense because the number of weapons that could devastate the US is simply too small. Even a 99% effective defense would not keep the country from collapsing under an attack by the USSR.