Explore the vast range of titles available.

Despite improvements to global economic conditions, child undernourishment has increased in recent years, with approximately 7.5% of children suffering from wasting. Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and increase potential threats to nutrition, particularly in low-income and lower-middle income countries where the majority of undernourished children live. We combine anthropometric data for 192,000 children from 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with historical climate data to directly estimate the effect of temperature on key malnutrition outcomes. We first document a strong negative relationship between child weight and average temperature across regions. We then exploit variation in weather conditions to statistically identify the effects of increased temperatures over multiple time scales on child nutrition. Increased temperatures in the month of survey, year leading up to survey and child lifetime lead to meaningful declines in acute measures of child nutrition. We find that the lifetime-scale effects explain most of the region-level negative relationship between weight and temperature, indicating that high temperatures may be a constraint on child nutrition. We use CMIP5 local temperature projections to project the impact of future warming, and find substantial increases in malnutrition depending on location: western Africa would see a 37% increase in the prevalence of wasting by 2100, and central and eastern Africa 25%.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.Global change, including climate change, urbanization and global travel and trade, has affected the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. In the Review, Baker, Metcalf and colleagues examine how global change affects infectious diseases, highlighting examples ranging from COVID-19 to Zika virus disease.

The seasonality of many respiratory pathogen outbreaks, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, is driven by climate factors, such as specific humidity or temperature. However, it remains unclear whether climate plays a role in determining the seasonality of COVID-19, given that the evolution of novel strains likely plays a key role in shaping outbreak dynamics. Here we use Emergency Department data to explore spatial differences in COVID-19 outbreak dynamics over three years, from April 2022 through March 2025. We observe that outbreak patterns varied across latitude, with southern states experiencing larger summer peaks and northern states facing more evenly distributed summer to winter outbreaks or larger winter peaks. We find that specific humidity and temperature at the state level are significantly associated with observed differences in ED visits with a COVID-19 diagnosis, even after controlling for state-level variation in vaccination status. Our results imply a role for climate in influencing COVID-19 outbreak dynamics. We anticipate these findings will provide a foundational understanding of factors shaping SARS-CoV-2 transmission as COVID-19 becomes endemic in the United States.

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%. Climate change is likely to impact the circulation of many infectious diseases. Here, the authors characterize the impact of climatic and demographic factors on enterovirus disease transmission and project how changes in climate may impact future transmission.

A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall. Climate affects dynamics of infectious diseases, but the impact on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology isn’t well understood. Here, Baker et al. model the influence of temperature, humidity and rainfall on RSV epidemiology in the USA and Mexico and predict impact of climate change on RSV dynamics.

High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions. Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the early phase of the pandemic has been driven by high population susceptibility, but virus sensitivity to climate may play a role in future outbreaks. Here, the authors simulate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in winter assuming climate dependence is similar to an endemic coronavirus strain.

Titrating the importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks. In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a major childhood respiratory pathogen, displayed a sudden, dramatic shift in outbreak seasonality (from winter to fall) in 2016. We use mathematical models to identify processes that could lead to this outcome. In line with previous analyses, we identify a robust quadratic relationship between transmission against mean specific humidity and mean temperature, with maximum transmission occurring at low and high humidity as well as low and high temperature. This drives semiannual patterns of seasonal transmission rates that peak in summer and winter. Under this transmission regime, a subtle increase in population-level susceptibility or transmission can cause a sudden shift in seasonality, where the degree of shift is primarily determined by the interval between the two peaks of seasonal transmission rate. We hypothesize that an increase in children attending childcare facilities may have contributed to the increase in the overall RSV transmission through increased contact rates between susceptible and infected hosts. Our analysis underscores the power of studying infectious disease dynamics to titrate the roles of underlying drivers of dynamical transitions in ecology. The timing of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemic peaks in Japan shifted in 2016-17. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to evaluate the hypothesis that this change in timing may be due to an increase in use of childcare facilities following a policy change

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity and mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In turn, these complexities have highlighted a number of important unknowns related to the breadth and strength of immunity following recovery or vaccination. Using simple mathematical models, we investigate the medium-term impacts of waning immunity against severe disease on immuno-epidemiological dynamics. We find that uncertainties in the duration of severity-blocking immunity (imparted by either infection or vaccination) can lead to a large range of medium-term population-level outcomes ( i.e . infection characteristics and immune landscapes). Furthermore, we show that epidemiological dynamics are sensitive to the strength and duration of underlying host immune responses; this implies that determining infection levels from hospitalizations requires accurate estimates of these immune parameters. More durable vaccines both reduce these uncertainties and alleviate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in pessimistic outcomes. However, heterogeneity in vaccine uptake drastically changes immune landscapes toward larger fractions of individuals with waned severity-blocking immunity. In particular, if hesitancy is substantial, more robust vaccines have almost no effects on population-level immuno-epidemiology, even if vaccination rates are compensatorily high among vaccine-adopters. This pessimistic scenario for vaccination heterogeneity arises because those few individuals that are vaccine-adopters are so readily re-vaccinated that the duration of vaccinal immunity has no appreciable consequences on their immune status. Furthermore, we find that this effect is heightened if vaccine-hesitants have increased transmissibility ( e.g . due to riskier behavior). Overall, our results illustrate the necessity to characterize both transmission-blocking and severity-blocking immune time scales. Our findings also underline the importance of developing robust next-generation vaccines with equitable mass vaccine deployment.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on a global scale; however, the cycling of RSV subtypes in the pre- and post-pandemic period remains poorly understood. Here, we used a two subtype RSV model supplemented with epidemiological data to study the impact of NPIs on the two circulating subtypes, RSV-A and RSV-B. The model is calibrated to historic RSV subtype data from the United Kingdom and Finland and predicts a tendency for RSV-A dominance over RSV-B immediately following the implementation of NPIs. Using a global genetic dataset, we confirm that RSV-A has prevailed over RSV-B in the post-pandemic period, consistent with a higher R 0 for RSV-A. With new RSV infant monoclonals and maternal and elderly vaccines becoming widely available, these results may have important implications for understanding intervention effectiveness in the context of disrupted subtype dynamics.