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Leprosy transmission is ongoing; globally and within Bangladesh. Household contacts of leprosy cases are at increased risk of leprosy development. Identification of household contacts at highest risk would optimize this process. The temporal pattern of new case presentation amongst household contacts was documented in the COCOA (Contact Cohort Analysis) study. The COCOA study actively examined household contacts of confirmed leprosy index cases identified in 1995, and 2000-2014, to provide evidence for timings of contact examination policies. Data was available on 9527 index cases and 38303 household contacts. 666 household contacts were diagnosed with leprosy throughout the follow-up (maximum follow-up of 21 years). Risk factors for leprosy development within the data analysed, were identified using Cox proportional hazard regression. The dominant risk factor for household contacts developing leprosy was having a highly skin smear positive index case in the household. As the grading of initial slit skin smear of the index case increased from negative to high positive (4-6), the hazard of their associated household contacts developing leprosy increases by 3.14 times (p<0.001). Being a blood relative was not a risk factor, no gender differences in susceptibility were found. We found a dominance of a single variable predicting risk for leprosy transmission-skin smear positive index cases. A small number of cases are maintaining transmission in the household setting. Focus should be performing contact examinations on these households and detecting new skin smear positive index cases. Conducting slit-skin smears on new cases is needed for predicting risk; such services need supporting. If skin smear positive cases are sustaining leprosy infection within the household setting, the administration of single-dose rifampicin (SDR) to household contacts as the sole intervention in Bangladesh will not be effective.

About the Authors: Diana N. J. Lockwood * E-mail: Diana.Lockwood@lshtm.ac.uk Affiliation: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious Diseases, London, United Kingdom ORCID logo http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6632-3142 Saba Lambert Affiliation: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious Diseases, London, United Kingdom Aparna Srikantam Affiliation: LEPRA-Blue Peter Public Health and Research Center, Hyderabad, India Joydeepa Darlong Affiliation: The Leprosy Mission Trust, New Delhi, India V. V. Pai Affiliation: Bombay Leprosy Project, Mumbai, India C. Ruth Butlin Affiliation: The Leprosy Mission England and Wales, United Kingdom Barbara de Barros Affiliation: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious Diseases, London, United Kingdom ORCID logo http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5382-8165 Edessa Negera Affiliation: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious Diseases, London, United Kingdom Stephen L. Walker Affiliation: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Infectious Diseases, London, United Kingdom ORCID logo http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2034-8376 Citation: Lockwood DNJ, Lambert S, Srikantam A, Darlong J, Pai VV, Butlin CR, et al. The development of guidelines based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) methodology represents a modern approach to the synthesis of evidence to aid policy makers, programme managers, and healthcare workers. A lack of information regarding adverse effects of treatment was highlighted as a barrier to adherence by the participants of the focus groups. In the International Federation of Anti-leprosy Associations (ILEP) Nerve Function Impairment and Reaction (INFIR) Cohort Study, 63.7% of new MB patients in India had negative slit-skin smears, which shows that actually PB patients are being included in the MB category rather than the other way round [15].

We wished to validate our recently devised 16-item ENLIST ENL Severity Scale, a clinical tool for measuring the severity of the serious leprosy associated complication of erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL). We also wished to assess the responsiveness of the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale in detecting clinical change in patients with ENL. Participants, recruited from seven centres in six leprosy endemic countries, were assessed using the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale by two researchers, one of whom categorised the severity of ENL. At a subsequent visit a further assessment using the scale was made and both participant and physician rated the change in ENL using the subjective categories of \"Much better\", \"somewhat better\", \"somewhat worse\" and \"much worse\" compared with \"No change\" or \"about the same\". 447 participants were assessed with the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale. The Cronbach alpha of the scale and each item was calculated to determine the internal consistency of the scale. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale had good internal consistency and this improved following removal of six items to give a Cronbach's alpha of 0.77. The cut off between mild ENL and more severe disease was 9 determined using ROC curves. The minimal important difference of the scale was determined to be 5 using both participant and physician ratings of change. The 10-item ENLIST ENL Severity Scale is the first valid, reliable and responsive measure of ENL severity and improves our ability to assess and compare patients and their treatments in this severe and difficult to manage complication of leprosy. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale will assist physicians in the monitoring and treatment of patients with ENL. The ENLIST ENL Severity Scale is easy to apply and will be useful as an outcome measure in treatment studies and enable the standardisation of other clinical and laboratory ENL research.

IntroductionErythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is an immunological complication of leprosy. ENL results in morbidity and disability and if it is not treated can lead to death. The current treatment consists of thalidomide or high doses of oral corticosteroids for prolonged periods. Thalidomide is not available in many leprosy endemic countries. The use of corticosteroids is associated with morbidity and mortality. Identifying treatment regimens that reduce the use of corticosteroids in ENL is essential. Methotrexate (MTX) is used to treat many inflammatory diseases and has been used successfully to treat patients with ENL not controlled by other drugs, including prednisolone and thalidomide. We present the protocol of the ‘MTX and prednisolone study in ENL’ (MaPs in ENL) a randomised controlled trial (RCT) designed to test the efficacy of MTX in the management of ENL.Methods and analysisMaPs in ENL is an international multicentre RCT, which will be conducted in leprosy referral centres in Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia and Nepal. Patients diagnosed with ENL who consent to participate will be randomly allocated to receive 48 weeks of weekly oral MTX plus 20 weeks of prednisolone or 48 weeks of placebo plus 20 weeks of prednisolone. Participants will be stratified by type of ENL into those with acute ENL and those with chronic and recurrent ENL. The primary objective is to determine whether MTX reduces the requirement for additional prednisolone. Patients’ reported outcome measures will be used to assess the efficacy of MTX. Participants will be closely monitored for adverse events.Ethics and disseminationResults will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Ethical approval was obtained from the Observational/Interventions Research Ethics Committee of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (15762); The Leprosy Mission International Bangladesh Institutional Research Board (in process); AHRI-ALERT Ethical Review Committee, Ethiopia; Ethics Committee of the Managing Committee of the Bombay Leprosy Project; and The Leprosy Mission Trust India Ethics Committee; the Nepal Health and Research Council and Health Research Ethics Committee Dr. Soetomo, Indonesia. This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov. This is the first RCT of MTX for ENL and will contribute to the evidence for the management of ENL.Trial registration numberNCT 03775460.

Background Leprosy is known to be unevenly distributed between and within countries. High risk areas or ‘hotspots’ are potential targets for preventive interventions, but the underlying epidemiologic mechanisms that enable hotspots to emerge, are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified and characterized leprosy hotspots in Bangladesh, a country with one of the highest leprosy endemicity levels globally. Methods We used data from four high-endemic districts in northwest Bangladesh including 20 623 registered cases between January 2000 and April 2019 (among ~ 7 million population). Incidences per union (smallest administrative unit) were calculated using geospatial population density estimates. A geospatial Poisson model was used to detect incidence hotspots over three (overlapping) 10-year timeframes: 2000–2009, 2005–2014 and 2010–2019. Ordinal regression models were used to assess whether patient characteristics were significantly different for cases outside hotspots, as compared to cases within weak (i.e., relative risk (RR) of one to two), medium (i.e., RR of two to three), and strong (i.e., RR higher than three) hotspots. Results New case detection rates dropped from 44/100 000 in 2000 to 10/100 000 in 2019. Statistically significant hotspots were identified during all timeframes and were often located at areas with high population densities. The RR for leprosy was up to 12 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots than for people living outside hotspots. Within strong hotspots (1930 cases among less than 1% of the population), significantly more child cases (i.e., below 15 years of age) were detected, indicating recent transmission. Cases in hotspots were not significantly more likely to be detected actively. Conclusions Leprosy showed a heterogeneous distribution with clear hotspots in northwest Bangladesh throughout a 20-year period of decreasing incidence. Findings confirm that leprosy hotspots represent areas of higher transmission activity and are not solely the result of active case finding strategies.

Although BCG is used as a vaccine against tuberculosis, it also protects against leprosy. Previous evaluation over 18 years of an intervention of two doses BCG for 3536 household contacts of leprosy patients showed that 28 (23%) out of 122 contacts diagnosed with leprosy, developed symptoms 2–10 months after vaccination. This study describes contacts of leprosy patients in Bangladesh who developed leprosy within 12 weeks after receiving a single BCG dose. A cluster RCT in Bangladesh aims to study the effectiveness of the BCG vaccine versus BCG in combination with single dose rifampicin (SDR) given 2 to 3 months after BCG, in the prevention of leprosy among contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients. During the first 1,5 years of this ongoing trial we identified contacts who developed leprosy within the first 12 weeks after receiving BCG vaccination, the timeframe before SDR is given. We identified 21 contacts who developed leprosy within 12 weeks after BCG vaccination among 5196 vaccinated contacts (0.40%). All 21 cases presented with paucibacillary (PB) leprosy, including children and adults. About half of these cases had previously received BCG vaccination as indicated by the presence of a BCG scar; 43% presented with signs of nerve function impairment and/or Type 1 (reversal) reaction, and 56% of the index patients had multibacillary (MB) leprosy. An unexpectedly high proportion of healthy contacts of leprosy patients presented with PB leprosy within 12 weeks after receiving BCG vaccination, possibly as a result of boosted cell-mediated immunity by homologues of Mycobacterium leprae antigens in BCG. Various immunological mechanisms could underlie this phenomenon, including an immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). Further studies are required to determine whether BCG vaccination merely altered the incubation period or actually changed the course of the infection from self-limiting, subclinical infection to manifest disease.

The immunomodulatory drug thalidomide is the treatment of choice for erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL), an inflammatory cutaneous and systemic complication of multibacillary leprosy. To elucidate the mechanism of action of thalidomide in this syndrome, we prospectively investigated 20 patients with ENL who were treated with thalidomide for 21 days. All patients responded to treatment, with the majority of them having complete resolution of cutaneous lesions within 7 days. This response was associated with a marked but transient increase in ex vivo mitogen-induced expression of interleukin (IL)–2 and interferon-γ by CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that was observed on treatment day 7, but these returned to pretreatment levels by day 21. Plasma tumor necrosis factor–α levels were not high at baseline, and they increased modestly during treatment. Plasma levels of IL-12 increased steadily during thalidomide treatment. Hence, the therapeutic effect of thalidomide in ENL appears to be associated with transient immune stimulation, which suggests that the drug may promote an active immunoregulatory response

To develop a valid and reliable quantitative measure of leprosy Type 1 reactions. A scale was developed from previous scales which had not been validated. The face and content validity were assessed following consultation with recognised experts in the field. The construct validity was determined by applying the scale to patients in Bangladesh and Brazil who had been diagnosed with leprosy Type 1 reaction. An expert categorized each patient's reaction as mild or moderate or severe. Another worker applied the scale. This was done independently. In a subsequent stage of the study the agreement between two observers was assessed. The scale had good internal consistency demonstrated by a Cronbach's alpha >0.8. Removal of three items from the original scale resulted in better discrimination between disease severity categories. Cut off points for Type 1 reaction severities were determined using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. A mild Type 1 reaction is characterized using the final scale by a score of 4 or less. A moderate reaction is a score of between 4.5 and 8.5. A severe reaction is a score of 9 or more. We have developed a valid and reliable tool for quantifying leprosy Type 1 reaction severity and believe this will be a useful tool in research of this condition, in observational and intervention studies, and in the comparison of clinical and laboratory parameters.

A cohort of new borderline leprosy patients seen over a 7-year period were examined retrospectively for risk of type 1 reactions (T1R) associated with 12 clinical and laboratory parameters. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify a strong link between facial patches and cutaneous T1R and enlarged ulnar nerves and neural T1R. Anti-phenolic glycolipid-I seropositivity, a positive bacterial index, and disease in more than two body areas were also identified as risk factors for T1R. These data indicate that there are important clinical data which can be used to predict an individual patient's risk of developing T1R.

In Nepal, dapsone (DDS) monotherapy was introduced in 1956 and MDT in 1983, although the coverage of MDT only reached 95% more than a decade later. Since 1987, we have been testing all suitable patients for primary and secondary drug resistance using the mouse foot pad model. We have analyzed the drug sensitivities of Mycobacterium leprae isolated from skin biopsies from 268 new and relapsed cases and from patients re-starting treatment. In the period 1988 to 1999, there was a decline in the prevalence of acquired dapsone resistance and a rise in the prevalence of primary dapsone resistance. There was a complete absence of rifampin (RMP) resistance among our patients.