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result(s) for
"Chisola, Moses Ngongo"
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Ecological Niche Modeling of Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia
2023
The circulation of both West Nile Virus (WNV) and Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in humans and animals, coupled with a favorable tropical climate for mosquito proliferation in Zambia, call for the need for a better understanding of the ecological and epidemiological factors that govern their transmission dynamics in this region. This study aimed to examine the contribution of climatic variables to the distribution of Culex and Aedes mosquito species, which are potential vectors of CHIKV, WNV, and other arboviruses of public-health concern. Mosquitoes collected from Lusaka as well as from the Central and Southern provinces of Zambia were sorted by species within the Culex and Aedes genera, both of which have the potential to transmit viruses. The MaxEnt software was utilized to predict areas at risk of WNV and CHIKV based on the occurrence data on mosquitoes and environmental covariates. The model predictions show three distinct spatial hotspots, ranging from the high-probability regions to the medium- and low-probability regions. Regions along Lake Kariba, the Kafue River, and the Luangwa Rivers, as well as along the Mumbwa, Chibombo, Kapiri Mposhi, and Mpika districts were predicted to be suitable habitats for both species. The rainfall and temperature extremes were the most contributing variables in the predictive models.
Journal Article
How Can Multifunctional Agriculture Support a Transition to a Green Economy in Africa? Lessons from the COMACO Model in Zambia
by
Moses Ngongo Chisola
,
Orleans Mfune
,
Ignitius Ziba
in
agricultural industry
,
Agriculture (General)
,
agro-based enterprise
2016
This paper examines the link between the green economy and multifunctional agriculture. In particular, the paper uses the case of the Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) initiative, an agro-based enterprise promoting a multifunctional agriculture model in Eastern Zambia, to examine how the potential of smallholder farmers can be harnessed to support a transition towards the green economy. The empirical data on which the paper is based were collected through questionnaire surveys and in-depth interviews conducted with farmers and other actors in the agricultural sector. The results of the study show that a number of elements underpinning the COMACO model including sustainable land management practices, conservation outreach, community markets, value addition, and conservation dividends have great potential to deliver benefits related to the green economy. However, to truly foster a transition towards a green economy, a number of constraints need to be overcome. These include lack of a supportive policy and institutional framework, technological backwardness, and lack of consumer awareness of environmental information instruments such as eco-labelling.
Journal Article
Understanding Climatic-Landscape-Hydrological Interactions at a Meso-Scale to Guide Global Change Adaptation : A Study in the Kaleya River Catchment, Zambia
2022
This study examined the climatic-landscape-hydrological interactions in a catchment facing landscape fragmentation, agricultural intensification, and increased climatic risks. The study took a holistic approach by examining past, present, and future interactions using the lenses of the green-blue water approach to devise interventions for improved water storage and management in the case study of the Kaleya River Catchment (about 750 km2) of southern Zambia. The results could be extrapolated to other semi-arid areas with similar hydrogeological and climatic settings.To assess the past interactions, a simple landscape hydrology approach was developed and applied to determine factors explaining seasonal water availability and provide insights on how landscape components could be enhanced to augment natural river flows and reduce sediment loss. Based on the Variable Importance in Projection (VIPs), results showed that seasonal climatic and weather extremes involving rainfall intensities, rainfall variability and dry spell length were more important than annual rainfall totals in explaining seasonal water availability. Additionally, patchiness of cover was more important in explaining seasonal water availability than the percentage of cover type in the landscape (PLAND). The Patch Density (PD) and Largest Patch Index (LPI) of reservoirs were the main landscape pattern stressors, alongside percentage of cover type metrics involving PLAND of irrigated cropland and reservoirs. But the LPI of forestland positively explained seasonal river flows. The study recommended that water resource interventions in the region must adapt more to changing seasonal rainfall characteristics than to annual rainfall totals. Additionally, regeneration of larger forest patches could improve river flows.To understand the climatic-landscape-hydrological interactions in the present, naturally occurring stable water isotopes [deuterium (δ 2H) and oxygen-18 (δ 18O)], hydro-chemical parameters [chloride (Cl-1) and electrical conductivity (EC)] were used as tracers. Based on the combination of end member mixing analysis and mixing model analysis, the major streamflow sources could be evaluated.The results revealed that stormwater runoff from non-irrigated areas (43 ± 13) %, the perennial spring (39 ± 21) % and stormwater runoff from irrigated areas (18 ± 17) % were the major streamflow sources in the rainy season. Streamflow sources in the dry season were different upstream and downstream, thereby reflecting different water use dynamics in the catchment. In the upstream catchment, the perennial spring at the river source (65 ± 15) % and irrigation return flows (35 ± 15) % were the dominant streamflow sources. In the downstream part of the catchment, dry season streamflow was mainly attributed to irrigation return flows (73 ± 15) % and wastewater (27 ± 15) %, both associated with water originally transferred in from the adjacent Kafue River through an intra-basin water transfer scheme. It was found that this water plays an important role in sustaining streamflow in the lower part of the catchment before discharging back into the Kafue River. It was thus recommended that efforts to improve irrigation efficiency in the lower catchment must simultaneously ensure downstream flows are maintained.Based on the findings of the past and present interactions, it was noted that irrigated agriculture had two contrasting effects on dry season flows depending on the source of irrigation water. In the upper and middle catchment where irrigation water was sourced from the Kaleya River, irrigation reduced dry season flows despite some contributions from return flows.
Dissertation
Ecological Niche Modeling of IAedes/I and ICulex/I Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia
by
Simubali, Limonty
,
Simulundu, Edgar
,
Chisenga, Caroline Cleopatra
in
Chikungunya virus
,
Distribution
,
Environmental aspects
2023
The circulation of both West Nile Virus (WNV) and Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in humans and animals, coupled with a favorable tropical climate for mosquito proliferation in Zambia, call for the need for a better understanding of the ecological and epidemiological factors that govern their transmission dynamics in this region. This study aimed to examine the contribution of climatic variables to the distribution of Culex and Aedes mosquito species, which are potential vectors of CHIKV, WNV, and other arboviruses of public-health concern. Mosquitoes collected from Lusaka as well as from the Central and Southern provinces of Zambia were sorted by species within the Culex and Aedes genera, both of which have the potential to transmit viruses. The MaxEnt software was utilized to predict areas at risk of WNV and CHIKV based on the occurrence data on mosquitoes and environmental covariates. The model predictions show three distinct spatial hotspots, ranging from the high-probability regions to the medium- and low-probability regions. Regions along Lake Kariba, the Kafue River, and the Luangwa Rivers, as well as along the Mumbwa, Chibombo, Kapiri Mposhi, and Mpika districts were predicted to be suitable habitats for both species. The rainfall and temperature extremes were the most contributing variables in the predictive models.
Journal Article