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We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO 2 vs 0.09 kgCO 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

Climate adaptation actions can be energy-intensive, but how adaptation feeds back into the energy system and the environment is absent in nearly all up-to-date energy scenarios. Here we quantify the impacts of adaptation actions entailing direct changes in final energy use on energy investments and costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution. We find that energy needs for adaptation increase considerably over time and with warming. The resulting addition in capacity for power generation leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollutants, and energy system costs. In the short to medium term, much of the added capacity for power generation is fossil-fuel based. We show that mitigation pathways accounting for the adaptation-energy feedback would require a higher global carbon price, between 5% and 30% higher. Because of the benefits in terms of reduced adaptation needs, energy system costs in ambitious mitigation scenarios would be lower than previous estimates, and they would turn negative in well-below-2-degree scenarios, pointing at net gains in terms of power system costs. A new study characterizes adaptation in mitigation pathways, and shows that climate adaptation can lead to higher energy demand, power system costs and carbon prices, with mitigation’s benefits compensating decarbonization costs.

This paper explores the synergies between photovoltaic (PV) adoption as a climate mitigation strategy and the growing need for adaptation through increased cooling demand across Italy. We combine estimates of semi elasticities capturing the effect of residential PV systems on household electricity withdrawals from the grid with high frequency projections of local PV potential, future adoption scenarios and climate projections. This integrated framework allows us to assess two key outcomes: first, the evolution of residential electricity demand for cooling under rising temperatures and second, the extent to which PV diffusion can offset grid electricity consumption. Our nationwide analysis estimates that with rising temperatures, cooling needs will drive significant increases in electricity demand, by 2–3 TWh annually, a 5% increase with respect to residential electricity consumption in 2023. At the same time, expanded PV adoption can partially counterbalance this effect by reducing household reliance on the grid during peak demand periods by almost 50%. The spatial distribution of future PV uptake reveals pronounced heterogeneity across municipalities. Areas in northern Italy and the islands, where installation rates are relatively high, experience sizable benefits from PV generation. In contrast, large and densely populated cities in central and southern Italy, despite being more exposed to frequent and intense heat, capture far smaller gains due to persistently low PV penetration. Overall, our results highlight the importance of jointly considering mitigation and adaptation when designing energy policies. They also underscore the role of targeted measures to promote PV adoption in heat exposed urban areas as part of Italy’s ongoing energy transition.

The paper systematically reviews and compares 88 scenarios of energy demand in commercial and residential buildings that include the additional energy use or savings induced by thermal adaptation in heating and cooling needs at global level. The resulting studies are grouped in a novel classification that makes it possible to systematically understand why the energy projections of integrated assessment models vary depending on how changes in climatic conditions and the associated adaptation needs are modeled. Projections underestimate the energy demand of the building sector when it is driven only by income, population, unchanging climatic conditions and their associated adaptation needs. Across the studies reviewed, already by 2050 climate change will induce a median 30% (90%) percentage variation of a building's energy demand for cooling and a median −8% (−24%) percentage variation for heating, leading to a 2% (13%) increase when cooling and heating are combined, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 1.9 (8.5). The results underscore that models lacking extensive margin adjustments, and models that focus on residential demand, highly underestimate the additional cooling needs of the building sector. Topics that deserve further investigation regard improving the characterization of adopting energy-using goods that provide thermal adaptation services and better articulating the heterogeneous needs across sectors.

This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system’s load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: (i) air-conditioning demand; (ii) thermal power outages; (iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system’s response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5–8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system’s vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. In fact, renewable energy sources are generally less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, compared to thermal power and hydropower generation. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation.

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

COVID-19 lockdowns make it possible to investigate the extent to which an unprecedented increase in renewables’ penetration may have brought unexpected limitations and vulnerabilities of current power systems to the surface. We empirically investigate how power systems in five European countries have dealt with this unexpected shock, drastically changing electricity load, the scheduling of dispatchable generation technologies, electricity day-ahead wholesale prices, and balancing costs. We find that low-cost dispatchable generation from hydro and nuclear sources has fulfilled most of the net-load even during peak hours, replacing more costly fossil-based generation. In Germany, the UK, and Spain coal power plants stood idle, while gas-fired generation has responded in heterogeneous ways across power systems. Falling operational costs of generators producing at the margin and lower demand, both induced by COVID-19 lockdowns, have significantly decreased wholesale prices. Balancing and other ancillary services’ markets have provided the flexibility required to respond to the exceptional market conditions faced by the grid. Balancing costs for flexibility services have increased heterogeneously across countries, while ancillary markets’ costs, measured only in the case of Italy, have increased substantially. Results provide valuable evidence on current systems’ dynamics during high renewables’ shares and increased demand volatility. New insights into the market changes countries will be facing in the transition towards a clean, secure, and affordable power system are offered.

Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles.Messages for policyDeveloping targets and corresponding policies to increase the share of electricity and sustainable fuels in energy-using sectors globally will yield significant emission reductions, especially in the medium term.Adopting a mix of policy measures, including both technological solutions and in support of behavioural changes, can alleviate the burden of mitigation on energy supply and infrastructure.End-use policies, such as efficiency improvements and promoting electrification, mostly interact synergistically with minimal trade-offs. A coordinated mix of these policies accelerates decarbonization.Transformative changes in buildings and transport can significantly reduce emissions. Key actions include electrification, smarter use of space, better insulation, enhanced vehicle efficiency, less driving, more biking, and better public transport.

Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles. Messages for policy Developing targets and corresponding policies to increase the share of electricity and sustainable fuels in energy-using sectors globally will yield significant emission reductions, especially in the medium term. Adopting a mix of policy measures, including both technological solutions and in support of behavioural changes, can alleviate the burden of mitigation on energy supply and infrastructure. End-use policies, such as efficiency improvements and promoting electrification, mostly interact synergistically with minimal trade-offs. A coordinated mix of these policies accelerates decarbonization. Transformative changes in buildings and transport can significantly reduce emissions. Key actions include electrification, smarter use of space, better insulation, enhanced vehicle efficiency, less driving, more biking, and better public transport.

This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal power outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation.