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The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.

Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.

The concept of ‘resilience’ has recently gained traction in a range of contexts. Its various interpretations and framings are now used to examine a variety of issues, particularly relating to the human dimensions of global change. This can pose challenges to scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers seeking to develop focused research programmes, design targeted interventions, and communicate across disciplinary boundaries. The concept of resilience is widely used in Aotearoa-New Zealand, where it informs both government policy and research programmes. Resilience is particularly relevant in this small developed nation, which is heavily reliant on primary production in rural areas and affected by a range of geological and climatic hazards. To understand the range and extent of application of resilience in the rural context, we use systematic review methods to identify, characterise, and synthesise this knowledge base. Currently, research applying the concept of resilience in the rural context is limited in areal extent, largely quantitative in nature, and led by a small number of researchers. There is limited evidence of collaboration. Research has focused on a small number of hazards, failing to capture the diversity of risks and hazards in addition to their impacts. The results of our analysis and methodology offer important insights for meta-analyses of risk and hazard scholarship. The findings provide a baseline to track the future progress and effectiveness of resilience interventions and help inform current and future research priorities targeting persistent vulnerabilities in rural New Zealand and elsewhere.

There is a climate change adaptation implementation gap. We have information about the likely impacts and implications, but concrete pre-emptive action is elusive. Key to addressing this are alternative planning approaches that enable decision makers to anticipate impacts and design alternate pathways depending on how conditions change, in time for adaptation actions to be implemented. Over the last ten years, dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) has been applied in Aotearoa New Zealand (A-NZ) to assist in such circumstances. Pathways planning has now been applied in diverse decision settings and has motivated the use and development of complementary methods and tools for evaluating adaptation options and pathways. Different governance and engagement models have emerged, tailored with and for different communities. DAPP research and practice in A-NZ has advanced the design of monitoring systems, decision signals and triggers, staging managed retreat over time, and serious games to prime decision makers for dealing with uncertainty. Māori (the Indigenous people of A-NZ) worldviews, knowledge and values have intersected and informed DAPP applications, but significant untapped opportunities exist. This paper presents lessons learned from these applications and further research needed. Opportunities for supporting and extending the DAPP process for adaptation decision making through governance, engagement and indigenous knowledge and values are suggested

Agricultural producers are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation. While incremental changes to cope with interannual variability are widely applied, there is limited understanding of the social contexts that inform, enable, or constrain more transformational adaptations in response to anticipated or actual climate change and other stressors. Systematic review methods are used to identify 31 empirical examples of land management change as an adaptation response by agricultural producers in developed countries. We then applied the values-rules-knowledge (vrk) framework to analyse interactions between societal values, institutional rules, and scientific and experiential knowledge. The vrk is a heuristic to help decision makers analyze how the social system shapes their decision context. Three propositions highlighting the relative influence of different values–rules, values–knowledge, and rules–knowledge relationships on agri-food and forestry land-management decisions are presented and discussed. We suggest that further testing of these propositions will provide evidence for decision makers about how decision contexts can be shifted to enable anticipatory transformative adaptation in the primary industries and support sustainable transitions towards more resilient futures.

On 14 November 2016, a magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck the small coastal settlement of Kaikōura, Aotearoa-New Zealand. With an economy based on tourism, agriculture, and fishing, Kaikōura was immediately faced with significant logistical, economic, and social challenges caused by damage to critical infrastructure and lifelines, essential to its main industries. Massive landslips cut offroad and rail access, stranding hundreds of tourists, and halting the collection, processing and distribution of agricultural products. At the coast, the seabed rose two metres, limiting harbour-access to high tide, with implications for whale watching tours and commercial fisheries. Throughout the region there was significant damage to homes, businesses, and farmland, leaving owners and residents facing an uncertain future. This paper uses qualitative case study analysis to explore post-quake transformations in a rural context. The aim is to gain insight into the distinctive dynamics of disaster response mechanisms, focusing on two initiatives that have emerged in direct response to the disaster. The first examines the ways in which agriculture, food harvesting, production and distribution are being reimagined with the potential to enhance regional food security. The second examines the rescaling of power in decision-making processes following the disaster, specifically examining the ways in which rural actors are leveraging networks to meet their needs and the consequences of that repositioning on rural (and national) governance arrangements. In these and other ways, the local economy is being revitalised, and regional resilience enhanced through diversification, capitalising not on the disaster but the region's natural, social, and cultural capital. Drawing on insights and experience of local stakeholders, policy- and decision-makers, and community representatives we highlight the diverse ways in which these endeavours are an attempt to create something new, revealing also the barriers which needed to be overcome to reshape local livelihoods. Results reveal that the process of transformation as part of rural recovery must be grounded in the lived reality of local residents and their understanding of place, incorporating and building on regional social, environmental, and economic characteristics. In this, the need to respond rapidly to realise opportunities must be balanced with the community-centric approach, with greater recognition given to the contested nature of the decisions to be made. Insights from the case examples can inform preparedness and recovery planning elsewhere, and provide a rich, real-time example of the ways in which disasters can create opportunities for reimagining resilient futures.

Those concerned with human responses to climate-related impacts increasingly use resilience as a framing concept. This Perspective critiques dominant approaches to resilience building and advocates a human livelihoods-based path. The resilience concept requires greater attention to human livelihoods if it is to address the limits to adaptation strategies and the development needs of the planet's poorest and most vulnerable people. Although the concept of resilience is increasingly informing research and policy, its transfer from ecological theory to social systems leads to weak engagement with normative, social and political dimensions of climate change adaptation. A livelihood perspective helps to strengthen resilience thinking by placing greater emphasis on human needs and their agency, empowerment and human rights, and considering adaptive livelihood systems in the context of wider transformational changes.

To consign this event to an \"archipelago of disaster,\" to interpret it solely in terms of the unusual, the extreme, or the random, will do little to change for the good -- in the long run -- the lives of the mostly poor who have been affected.

The argument is that with marginalization, one's choice of settlement location become proscribed. So we find earthquake victims living in poorly built, unreinforced concrete apartment buildings or in shanty towns on steep, unstable slopes; in Bangladesh, landless tenant farmers live in the Bay of Bengal on shifting islands of sediment, exposed to the full brunt of a hurricane's force.