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Cancer projections to the current year help in policy development, planning of programs and allocation of resources. We sought to provide an overview of the expected incidence and mortality of cancer in Canada in 2020 in follow-up to the Canadian Cancer Statistics 2019 report. We obtained incidence data from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2015). Mortality data (1984–2015) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. All databases are maintained by Statistics Canada. Cancer incidence and mortality counts and age-standardized rates were projected to 2020 for 23 cancer types by sex and geographic region (provinces and territories) for all ages combined. An estimated 225 800 new cancer cases and 83 300 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2020. The most commonly diagnosed cancers are expected to be lung overall (29 800), breast in females (27 400) and prostate in males (23 300). Lung cancer is also expected to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 25.5% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.6%), pancreatic (6.4%) and breast (6.1%) cancers. Incidence and mortality rates will be generally higher in the eastern provinces than in the western provinces. The number of cancer cases and deaths remains high in Canada and, owing to the growing and aging population, is expected to continue to increase. Although progress has been made in reducing deaths for most major cancers (breast, prostate and lung), there has been limited progress for pancreatic cancer, which is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada in 2020. Additional efforts to improve uptake of existing programs, as well as to advance research, prevention, screening and treatment, are needed to address the cancer burden in Canada.

Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022. We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2018). Mortality data (1984–2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces. Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

Cancer survival estimates provide insights into the effectiveness of early detection and treatment. The stage of cancer at diagnosis is an important determinant of survival, reflecting the extent and spread at the time of disease detection. This work provides stage-specific, five-year survival results not previously available for Canada. Data reflect the population-based Canadian Cancer Registry death-linked analytic file covering the period from 2010 to 2017. The stage at diagnosis was determined by the Collaborative Stage Data Collection System. Five-year net survival (NS) estimates for Canada excluding Quebec were derived using the Pohar Perme estimator for the five most commonly diagnosed cancers. Except for prostate cancer, NS decreased monotonically with increased stage at diagnosis. For example, female breast cancer NS estimates were 100% (stage I), 92% (stage II), 74% (stage III) and 23% (stage IV). Apart from lung cancer, stage I NS exceeded 90% for all cancers studied. The largest sex-specific difference in NS was for lung cancer stage I (female 66%; male 56%). Stage-specific NS generally decreased with age, particularly for early-stage lung cancer. Between the 2010-to-2012 and 2015-to-2017 periods, NS improved among stage IV prostate, female breast and lung cancer cases, as well as for stage I and III lung cancer cases; however, it did not improve at any stage for colon or rectal cancer cases. The work highlights the importance of detecting cancer early, when treatment is most effective. It demonstrates some progress in stage-specific survival among top cancers in Canada and offers data to inform health policy, including screening, and clinical decisions regarding cancer treatment.

ABSTRACTBackgroundCancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. MethodsWe obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984–2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984–2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. ResultsIn 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). InterpretationAlthough the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

A comprehensive evaluation of progress in cancer survival for all cancer types combined has not previously been conducted for Canada. The cancer survival index (CSI) is superior to age standardization in measuring such progress. From the 1992-to-1994 period to the 2015-to-2017 period, the five-year CSI increased 8.6 percentage points to 63.7%. It increased by 8.9 percentage points to 61.8% among males, and by 8.2 percentage points to 65.8% among females. The contribution of a cancer and sex combination to change in the CSI over time is a function of its assigned weight and changes in its age-standardized net survival. Female breast was the most influential cancer and sex combination, contributing 10.1 % to the overall increase, followed by prostate (8.2%) and female lung (7.3%). The increase in the index since the 2005-to-2007 period was most impacted by lung cancer among both females (11.1%) and males (9.4%). While prostate cancer survival increased over the entire study period, it has recently decreased, resulting in a counterproductive 8.1 % contribution since the 2005-to-2007 period.

Monitoring the progress of cancer survival in a population over time is an important part of cancer surveillance. Data are from the Canadian Cancer Registry with mortality follow-up through record linkage to the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database and tax files. Net survival (NS) was derived using the Pohar Perme method. Predicted estimates of NS for the period from 2012 to 2014 were calculated using the period method. Age-standardized and age-specific changes in five-year NS between the periods from 1992 to 1994 and 2012 to 2014 were determined for 30 individual cancers. Predicted five-year NS for 2012 to 2014 ranged from 98% for thyroid cancer to 7% for mesothelioma. Between 1992 to 1994 and 2012 to 2014, improvements in five-year age standardized NS were greatest for chronic myeloid leukemia (23.9 percentage points), though a large majority of the increase occurred in the first decade. Increases exceeding 15.0 percentage points were also observed for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (19.5), cancer of the small intestine (17.4) and multiple myeloma (16.9). In contrast, little to no improvement was observed for cancers of the anus, larynx, soft tissue or uterus, or for mesothelioma. Increases in five-year NS were greatest for chronic myeloid leukemia in each age group with the exception of those aged 75 to 84 years (thyroid). This study reveals important areas of progress in cancer outcomes in Canada since the early 1990s. It also sheds light on cancers for which there has seemingly been no improvement in five-year net survival over a 20-year period.

The validity of survival estimates from cancer registry data depends, in part, on the identification of the deaths of deceased cancer patients. People whose deaths are missed seemingly live on forever and are informally referred to as \"immortals.\" Their presence in registry data can result in inflated survival estimates. This study assesses the issue of immortals in the Canadian Cancer Registry (CCR) using a recently proposed method that compares the survival of long-term survivors of cancers for which \"statistical\" cure has been reported with that of similar people from the general population. Data are from the population-based CCR record linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database and tax data. Yearly interval-specific relative survival (IRS) estimates were derived up to 15 years after diagnosis for colon cancer cases, and for colon, rectal and melanoma cancer cases combined, diagnosed from 1992 to 2002. With increasing follow-up time since diagnosis, national colon cancer IRS estimates levelled off at 1.00, or slightly less, for each age group studied, indicating that survival did not exceed that of the general population. Similar results were obtained among males and females, and for colon, rectal and melanoma cancer cases combined. Provincial IRS point estimates for the three cancers combined also levelled off around 1.00, though with more variation in the estimates than at the national level. Based on the results of this study, immortals do not appear to be an issue at either the national or the provincial level for survival estimates derived from CCR data.

Abstract Background Breast cancer (BC) characteristics and outcomes in Canada related to race/ethnicity are not currently documented. Methods Age-specific and age-standardized BC incidence and mortality rates, age distribution of cases, proportions of stage, and molecular subtypes were calculated for women aged 20+, by race/ethnicity, using 2006 and 2011 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort databases of linked census, cancer, and death data. Results In 47 105 BC cases, age-specific incidence rates were higher in Filipina (rate ratio (RR) = 1.27, 95%CI, 1.11-1.46) and multiethnicity (RR = 1.57, 95% CI, 1.18-2.08) compared to White women aged 40-49; and Filipina (RR = 1.16, 95% CI, 1.02-1.31) and Arab (RR = 1.3, 95% CI, 1.02-1.65) women aged 50-59. Median age at diagnosis was 63 among White women and 52-60 among other race/ethnicity groups, with 22.4%-41.1% of cases (P < .001) diagnosed before age 50 compared to 16.6% among White women. BC was diagnosed at stage I less frequently among Filipina (38.6%), Black (39.2%), South Asian (40.6%), and First Nations (40.7%) compared to White (46.5%) and Chinese (49.6%) (P < .05) women. Black women had higher proportions of BC diagnoses at stages III and IV combined (26.3%) than White women (17.0%, P = .001). The proportion of triple-negative BC among Black women (20.5%) was higher than among White (9.5%, P < .001). Compared to White, age-specific BC mortality rates were higher among Black women aged 40-49 (RR = 1.4, 1.06-1.85) as well as First Nations (RR = 1.21, 1.01-1.45) and Métis (RR = 1.48, 1.15-1.91) women aged 60-69. Interpretation Compared to White women, other Canadian women had an earlier peak age of BC diagnosis and higher proportions of cases diagnosed under age 50. Although many race/ethnicity groups had lower BC incidence and mortality than White, the higher age-specific BC mortality among Black 40-49 and First Nations and Métis women 60-69 merits further investigation. This article focuses on whether breast cancer characteristics and outcomes differ by race and ethnicity in Canada.

Research in the United States and Europe has found that women have an advantage over men in surviving a diagnosis of cancer, but the issue has not been systematically studied in Canada. Data are from the Canadian Cancer Registry, with mortality follow-up through record linkage to the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database. The percentage unit difference in five-year relative survival ratios (RSRs) between women and men and the relative excess risk (RER) of death for women compared with men were used as measures of differences in cancer survival. A significant advantage for women compared with men was observed in 13 of the 18 cancers studied. Point estimates of RER were almost uniformly lower among those diagnosed at younger ages (15 to 54). For all cancers combined, women had a 13% lower excess risk of death-23% lower among women younger than 55. The overall advantage was greatest for thyroid cancer (RER = 0.31), skin melanoma (0.52) and Hodgkin lymphoma (0.65). The advantage for thyroid cancer was somewhat attenuated, though still significant, in earlier time periods. Bladder cancer was the only cancer for which women had a significant disadvantage (RER = 1.23); this excess risk seemed to be restricted to the first 12 to 18 months after diagnosis. The reasons behind sex-specific differences in cancer survival are not well understood. Many explanations are possible, and differences are best explored on a cancer-by-cancer basis. The pronounced advantage for women at younger ages lends indirect support to a hypothesized hormonal influence.

A comprehensive evaluation of progress in cancer survival for all cancer types combined in Canada has recently been accomplished. An analogous evaluation across Canadian provinces has yet to be conducted. For the most recent period, 2013 to 2017, the five-year CSI was highest in Ontario (64.1%) and Alberta (63.3%), and lowest in Nova Scotia (60.8%). Significant progress in the five-year CSI since the period from 1992 to 1996 was observed in each province; the largest increases occurred in Alberta (8.7 percentage points) and Ontario (8.6 percentage points). Alberta's increase improved its relative provincial ranking from eighth to second. The influence of prostate cancer on provincial changes in the CSI since the period from 2003 to 2007 varied considerably from strongly counterproductive in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia because of decreasing prostate cancer survival, to strongly productive in Manitoba.