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At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals 1 , 2 . However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife 3 , 4 . In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal–virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming. Changes in climate and land use will lead to species aggregating in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of animal-associated viruses.

Understanding interspecific viral transmission is key to understanding viral ecology and evolution, disease spillover into humans, and the consequences of global change. Prior studies have uncovered macroecological drivers of viral sharing, but analyses have never attempted to predict viral sharing in a pan-mammalian context. Using a conservative modelling framework, we confirm that host phylogenetic similarity and geographic range overlap are strong, nonlinear predictors of viral sharing among species across the entire mammal class. Using these traits, we predict global viral sharing patterns of 4196 mammal species and show that our simulated network successfully predicts viral sharing and reservoir host status using internal validation and an external dataset. We predict high rates of mammalian viral sharing in the tropics, particularly among rodents and bats, and within- and between-order sharing differed geographically and taxonomically. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological and phylogenetic factors in shaping mammalian viral communities, and provide a robust, general model to predict viral host range and guide pathogen surveillance and conservation efforts. Prior studies have investigated macroecological patterns of host sharing among viruses, although certain mammal clades have not been represented in these analyses, and the findings have not been used to predict the true network. Here the authors model the species level traits that predict viral sharing across all mammal clades and validate their predictions using an independent dataset.

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Pathogens that spill over between species cause a significant human and animal health burden. Here, we describe characteristics of animal reservoirs that are required for pathogen spillover. We assembled and analyzed a database of 330 disease systems in which a pathogen spills over from a reservoir of one or more species. Three-quarters of reservoirs included wildlife, and 84% included mammals. Further, 65% of pathogens depended on a community of reservoir hosts, rather than a single species, for persistence. Among mammals, the most frequently identified reservoir hosts were rodents, artiodactyls, and carnivores. The distribution among orders of mammalian species identified as reservoirs did not differ from that expected by chance. Among disease systems with high priority pathogens and epidemic potential, we found birds, primates, and bats to be overrepresented. We also analyzed the life history traits of mammalian reservoir hosts and compared them to mammals as a whole. Reservoir species had faster life history characteristics than mammals overall, exhibiting traits associated with greater reproductive output rather than long-term survival. Thus, we find that in many respects, reservoirs of spillover pathogens are indeed special. The described patterns provide a useful resource for studying and managing emerging infectious diseases.

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.

The black rat ( Rattus rattus ) is a globally invasive species that has been widely introduced across Africa. Within its invasive range in West Africa, R. rattus may compete with the native rodent Mastomys natalensis , the primary reservoir host of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that kills thousands annually. Here, we use rodent trapping data from Sierra Leone and Guinea to show that R. rattus presence reduces M. natalensis density within the human dwellings where Lassa virus exposure is most likely to occur. Further, we integrate infection data from M. natalensis to demonstrate that Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk is lower at sites with R. rattus . While non-native species can have numerous negative effects on ecosystems, our results suggest that R. rattus invasion has the indirect benefit of decreasing zoonotic spillover of an endemic pathogen, with important implications for invasive species control across West Africa. Mastomys natalensis is a rodent species native to West Africa that is the primary reservoir host for Lassa virus. Here, the authors investigate whether the invasive rodent Rattus rattus decreases M. natalensis density and could therefore indirectly decrease zoonotic transmission of Lassa virus to humans.

Animals and their viruses are connected by a sprawling, tangled network of species interactions. Data on the host-virus network are available from several sources, which use different naming conventions and often report metadata in different levels of detail. Data that catalogue viral diversity on Earth have been fragmented across sources, disciplines, formats, and various degrees of open sharing, posing challenges for research on macroecology, evolution, and public health. Here, we solve this problem by establishing a dynamically maintained database of vertebrate-virus associations, called The Global Virome in One Network (VIRION). The VIRION database has been assembled through both reconciliation of static data sets and integration of dynamically updated databases. These data sources are all harmonized against one taxonomic backbone, including metadata on host and virus taxonomic validity and higher classification; additional metadata on sampling methodology and evidence strength are also available in a harmonized format. In total, the VIRION database is the largest open-source, open-access database of its kind, with roughly half a million unique records that include 9,521 resolved virus “species” (of which 1,661 are ICTV ratified), 3,692 resolved vertebrate host species, and 23,147 unique interactions between taxonomically valid organisms. Together, these data cover roughly a quarter of mammal diversity, a 10th of bird diversity, and ∼6% of the estimated total diversity of vertebrates, and a much larger proportion of their virome than any previous database. We show how these data can be used to test hypotheses about microbiology, ecology, and evolution and make suggestions for best practices that address the unique mix of evidence that coexists in these data. IMPORTANCE Animals and their viruses are connected by a sprawling, tangled network of species interactions. Data on the host-virus network are available from several sources, which use different naming conventions and often report metadata in different levels of detail. VIRION is a new database that combines several of these existing data sources, reconciles taxonomy to a single consistent backbone, and reports metadata in a format designed by and for virologists. Researchers can use VIRION to easily answer questions like “Can any fish viruses infect humans?” or “Which bats host coronaviruses?” or to build more advanced predictive models, making it an unprecedented step toward a full inventory of the global virome.

Genome‐wide scans for selection have become a popular tool for investigating evolutionary responses in wildlife to emerging diseases. However, genome scans are susceptible to false positives and do little to demonstrate specific mechanisms by which loci impact survival. Linking putatively resistant genotypes to observable phenotypes increases confidence in genome scan results and provides evidence of survival mechanisms that can guide conservation and management efforts. Here we used an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis to uncover relationships between gene expression and alleles associated with the survival of little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) despite infection with the causative agent of white‐nose syndrome. We found that 25 of the 63 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with survival were related to gene expression in wing tissue. The differentially expressed genes have functional annotations associated with the innate immune system, metabolism, circadian rhythms, and the cellular response to stress. In addition, we observed differential expression of multiple genes with survival implications related to loci in linkage disequilibrium with focal SNPs. Together, these findings support the selective function of these loci and suggest that part of the mechanism driving survival may be the alteration of immune and other responses in epithelial tissue.

The global wildlife trade network is a massive system that has been shown to threaten biodiversity, introduce non-native species and pathogens, and cause chronic animal welfare concerns. Despite its scale and impact, comprehensive characterization of the global wildlife trade is hampered by data that are limited in their temporal or taxonomic scope and detail. To help fill this gap, we present data on 15 years of the importation of wildlife and their derived products into the United States (2000–2014), originally collected by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. We curated and cleaned the data and added taxonomic information to improve data usability. These data include >2 million wildlife or wildlife product shipments, representing >60 biological classes and >3.2 billion live organisms. Further, the majority of species in the dataset are not currently reported on by CITES parties. These data will be broadly useful to both scientists and policymakers seeking to better understand the volume, sources, biological composition, and potential risks of the global wildlife trade. Measurement(s) Import • wildlife • wildlife product Technology Type(s) digital curation Sample Characteristic - Environment wildlife trade network Sample Characteristic - Location United States of America Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11439471

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ), one of two fungal pathogens that cause the deadly amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, is a major impending threat to salamander biodiversity in North America, where it is not yet known to occur. In the United States, a 2016 wildlife trade policy restricted trade in 20 salamander genera in attempts to prevent Bsal introduction. However, little comprehensive data is available to evaluate the impact of this policy action. Here we collate a dataset of United States amphibian imports from 1999 to 2021 using Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) data and show that reported legal trade in the targeted taxa was effectively reduced by the ban. Unfortunately, amphibian trade into the United States continues to risk Bsal introduction given that other species and genera now known to carry Bsal are still traded in large quantities (millions of live individuals annually). Additional policy responses focused on Bsal carrier taxa, especially frogs in the genus Rana , could help mitigate the impact of Bsal on North American salamanders.