Explore the vast range of titles available.

The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL (a topography-based hydrological model) was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments, the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL. A final section addresses the question of what might be done now in seeking a simple, parametrically parsimonious model of hillslope and small catchment processes if we were starting again.

A traditional metric used in hydrology to summarize model performance is the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Increasingly an alternative metric, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), is used instead. When NSE is used, NSE = 0 corresponds to using the mean flow as a benchmark predictor. The same reasoning is applied in various studies that use KGE as a metric: negative KGE values are viewed as bad model performance, and only positive values are seen as good model performance. Here we show that using the mean flow as a predictor does not result in KGE = 0, but instead KGE =1-√2≈-0.41. Thus, KGE values greater than −0.41 indicate that a model improves upon the mean flow benchmark – even if the model's KGE value is negative. NSE and KGE values cannot be directly compared, because their relationship is non-unique and depends in part on the coefficient of variation of the observed time series. Therefore, modellers who use the KGE metric should not let their understanding of NSE values guide them in interpreting KGE values and instead develop new understanding based on the constitutive parts of the KGE metric and the explicit use of benchmark values to compare KGE scores against. More generally, a strong case can be made for moving away from ad hoc use of aggregated efficiency metrics and towards a framework based on purpose-dependent evaluation metrics and benchmarks that allows for more robust model adequacy assessment.

Benchmarking model performance across large samples of catchments is useful to guide model selection and future model development. Given uncertainties in the observational data we use to drive and evaluate hydrological models, and uncertainties in the structure and parameterisation of models we use to produce hydrological simulations and predictions, it is essential that model evaluation is undertaken within an uncertainty analysis framework. Here, we benchmark the capability of several lumped hydrological models across Great Britain by focusing on daily flow and peak flow simulation. Four hydrological model structures from the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) were applied to over 1000 catchments in England, Wales and Scotland. Model performance was then evaluated using standard performance metrics for daily flows and novel performance metrics for peak flows considering parameter uncertainty. Our results show that lumped hydrological models were able to produce adequate simulations across most of Great Britain, with each model producing simulations exceeding a 0.5 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for at least 80 % of catchments. All four models showed a similar spatial pattern of performance, producing better simulations in the wetter catchments to the west and poor model performance in central Scotland and south-eastern England. Poor model performance was often linked to the catchment water balance, with models unable to capture the catchment hydrology where the water balance did not close. Overall, performance was similar between model structures, but different models performed better for different catchment characteristics and metrics, as well as for assessing daily or peak flows, leading to the ensemble of model structures outperforming any single structure, thus demonstrating the value of using multi-model structures across a large sample of different catchment behaviours. This research evaluates what conceptual lumped models can achieve as a performance benchmark and provides interesting insights into where and why these simple models may fail. The large number of river catchments included in this study makes it an appropriate benchmark for any future developments of a national model of Great Britain.

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days ( p99 ), almost 50% (7GW e ) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr -1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr -1 . With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr -1 . The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1 st -order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts. The impacts of power plant water shortage during drought on electricity prices are understudied. Here the authors show that on extreme days, almost 50% (7 GWe) of the freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable in the Great Britain and annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices are in the range of £29-95m per year.

The ability of two‐dimensional hydrodynamic models to accurately and efficiently predict the propagation of floods over large urban areas is of paramount importance for flood risk assessment and management. Paradoxically, it is in these highly relevant urban domains where flood modeling faces some of the most challenging obstacles. This is because of the very high‐resolution topography that is typically required to capture key hydraulic features, which significantly increases the computational time of the model. One particularly interesting solution to this difficulty was recently proposed in the form of a numerical scheme for the solution of a simplified version of the shallow water equations, which yields a system of two explicit equations that captures the most relevant hydraulic processes at very high computational efficiency. However, some stability problems were reported, especially when this formulation is applied to low friction areas. This is of particular importance in urban areas, where smooth surfaces are usually abundant. This paper proposes and tests two modifications of this previous numerical scheme that considerably improves the numerical stability of the model. Model improvements were assessed against a structured set of idealized test cases and finally in the simulation of flood propagation over complex topography in a highly urbanized area in London, United Kingdom. The enhanced stability achieved by the new formulation comes at no significant additional computational cost and, in fact, the model performance can benefit from the longer time steps that are allowed by the new scheme. Key Points Solution of numerical instability reported in previous paper Proposal of a high‐performance and robust formulation for flood propagation

This paper presents the Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT): a modular open-source toolbox containing documentation and model code based on 46 existing conceptual hydrologic models. The toolbox is developed in MATLAB and works with Octave. MARRMoT models are based solely on traceable published material and model documentation, not on already-existing computer code. Models are implemented following several good practices of model development: the definition of model equations (the mathematical model) is kept separate from the numerical methods used to solve these equations (the numerical model) to generate clean code that is easy to adjust and debug; the implicit Euler time-stepping scheme is provided as the default option to numerically approximate each model's ordinary differential equations in a more robust way than (common) explicit schemes would; threshold equations are smoothed to avoid discontinuities in the model's objective function space; and the model equations are solved simultaneously, avoiding the physically unrealistic sequential solving of fluxes. Generalized parameter ranges are provided to assist with model inter-comparison studies. In addition to this paper and its Supplement, a user manual is provided together with several workflow scripts that show basic example applications of the toolbox. The toolbox and user manual are available from https://github.com/wknoben/MARRMoT (last access: 30 May 2019; 10.5281/zenodo.3235664). Our main scientific objective in developing this toolbox is to facilitate the inter-comparison of conceptual hydrological model structures which are in widespread use in order to ultimately reduce the uncertainty in model structure selection.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) enhances our understanding of computational models and simplifies model parameter estimation. VarIance‐based Sensitivity analysis using COpUlaS (VISCOUS) is a variance‐based GSA framework. The advantage of VISCOUS is that it can use existing model input‐output data (e.g., water model parameters‐responses) to estimate the first‐ and total‐order Sobol’ sensitivity indices. This study improves VISCOUS by refining its handling of marginal densities of the Gaussian mixture copula model (GMCM). We then evaluate VISCOUS using three types of generic functions relevant to water system models. We observe that its performance depends on function dimension, input‐output data size, and non‐identifiability. Function dimension refers to the number of uncertain input factors analyzed in GSA, and non‐identifiability refers to the inability to estimate GMCM parameters. VISCOUS proves powerful in estimating first‐order sensitivity with a small amount of input‐output data (e.g., 200 in this study), regardless of function dimension. It always ranks input factors correctly in both first‐ and total‐order terms. For estimating total‐order sensitivity, it is recommended to use VISCOUS when the function dimension is not very high (e.g., less than 20) due to the challenge of producing sufficient input‐output data for accurate GMCM inferences (e.g., more than 10,000 data). In cases where all input factors are equally important (a rarity in practice), VISCOUS faces non‐identifiability issues that impact its performance. We provide a didactic example and an open‐source Python code, pyVISCOUS, for broader user adoption. Plain Language Summary Global sensitivity analysis is a method used to better understand and estimate parameters in computational models. VarIance‐based Sensitivity analysis using COpUlaS (VISCOUS) is a framework for this purpose. It estimates the sensitivity of model outcomes to different uncertain model input factors by using the existing input and output data (e.g., water model parameters and responses). This study improved VISCOUS and tested it with various functions. We found that its performance depends on the number of input factors, the amount of input and output data available, and our ability to determine VISCOUS's parameters. VISCOUS is good at estimating the importance of individual input factors, even with limited data (e.g., 200) and numerous input factors. It always correctly ranks input factor importance, whether individually or collectively. When estimating the importance of input factors together, VISCOUS is recommended when the number of input factors is not very high (e.g., <20), as it is challenging to generate enough input and output data for estimating VISCOUS's parameters. When all input factors hold equal importance (though rare in practice), VISCOUS's performance is impacted due to the difficulty of estimating VISCOUS's parameters. To help people use VISCOUS, we provide an example and an open‐source Python code, pyVISCOUS. Key Points We improve the VarIance‐based Sensitivity analysis using COpUlaS (VISCOUS) global sensitivity analysis framework in its handling of marginal densities of the Gaussian mixture copula model We evaluate VISCOUS and demonstrate how its performance is affected by function dimension, input‐output size, and non‐identifiability We provide a didactic example and an open‐source Python code called pyVISCOUS to make VISCOUS easier to understand and apply

Knowledge of population dynamics is essential for managing and conserving wildlife. Traditional methods of counting wild animals such as aerial survey or ground counts not only disturb animals, but also can be labour intensive and costly. New, commercially available very high-resolution satellite images offer great potential for accurate estimates of animal abundance over large open areas. However, little research has been conducted in the area of satellite-aided wildlife census, although computer processing speeds and image analysis algorithms have vastly improved. This paper explores the possibility of detecting large animals in the open savannah of Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya from very high-resolution GeoEye-1 satellite images. A hybrid image classification method was employed for this specific purpose by incorporating the advantages of both pixel-based and object-based image classification approaches. This was performed in two steps: firstly, a pixel-based image classification method, i.e., artificial neural network was applied to classify potential targets with similar spectral reflectance at pixel level; and then an object-based image classification method was used to further differentiate animal targets from the surrounding landscapes through the applications of expert knowledge. As a result, the large animals in two pilot study areas were successfully detected with an average count error of 8.2%, omission error of 6.6% and commission error of 13.7%. The results of the study show for the first time that it is feasible to perform automated detection and counting of large wild animals in open savannahs from space, and therefore provide a complementary and alternative approach to the conventional wildlife survey techniques.

This paper presents DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology), a new model framework that simulates and predicts hydrologic flows from spatial scales of small headwater catchments to entire continents. DECIPHeR can be adapted to specific hydrologic settings and to different levels of data availability. It is a flexible model framework which includes the capability to (1) change its representation of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity by implementing hydrological response units in any configuration and (2) test different hypotheses of catchment behaviour by altering the model equations and parameters in different parts of the landscape. It has an automated build function that allows rapid set-up across large model domains and is open-source to help researchers and/or practitioners use the model. DECIPHeR is applied across Great Britain to demonstrate the model framework. It is evaluated against daily flow time series from 1366 gauges for four evaluation metrics to provide a benchmark of model performance. Results show that the model performs well across a range of catchment characteristics but particularly in wetter catchments in the west and north of Great Britain. Future model developments will focus on adding modules to DECIPHeR to improve the representation of groundwater dynamics and human influences.

The role that hydrology plays in governing the interactions between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen in rivers draining lowland, agricultural landscapes is currently poorly understood. In light of the potential changes to the production and delivery of DOC and nitrate to rivers arising from climate change and land use management, there is a pressing need to improve our understanding of hydrological controls on DOC and nitrate dynamics in such catchments. We measured DOC and nitrate concentrations in river water of six reaches of the lowland river Hampshire Avon (Wiltshire, southern UK) in order to quantify the relationship between BFI (BFI) and DOC : nitrate molar ratios across contrasting geologies (Chalk, Greensand, and clay). We found a significant positive relationship between nitrate and BFI (p < 0. 0001), and a significant negative relationship between DOC and BFI (p < 0. 0001), resulting in a non-linear negative correlation between DOC : nitrate molar ratio and BFI. In the Hampshire Avon, headwater reaches which are underlain by clay and characterized by a more flashy hydrological regime are associated with DOC : nitrate ratios  >  5 throughout the year, whilst groundwater-dominated reaches underlain by Chalk, with a high BFI have DOC : nitrate ratios in surface waters that are an order of magnitude lower (<  0.5). Our analysis also reveals significant seasonal variations in DOC : nitrate transport and highlights critical periods of nitrate export (e.g. winter in sub-catchments underlain by Chalk and Greensand, and autumn in drained, clay sub-catchments) when DOC : nitrate molar ratios are low, suggesting low potential for in-stream uptake of inorganic forms of nitrogen. Consequently, our study emphasizes the tight relationship between DOC and nitrate availability in agricultural catchments, and further reveals that this relationship is controlled to a great extent by the hydrological setting.