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A correlate of protection (CoP) is urgently needed to expedite development of additional COVID-19 vaccines to meet unprecedented global demand. To assess whether antibody titers may reasonably predict efficacy and serve as the basis of a CoP, we evaluated the relationship between efficacy and in vitro neutralizing and binding antibodies of 7 vaccines for which sufficient data have been generated. Once calibrated to titers of human convalescent sera reported in each study, a robust correlation was seen between neutralizing titer and efficacy (ρ = 0.79) and binding antibody titer and efficacy (ρ = 0.93), despite geographically diverse study populations subject to different forces of infection and circulating variants, and use of different endpoints, assays, convalescent sera panels and manufacturing platforms. Together with evidence from natural history studies and animal models, these results support the use of post-immunization antibody titers as the basis for establishing a correlate of protection for COVID-19 vaccines.

Background Threshold regression models are a diverse set of non-regular regression models that all depend on change points or thresholds. They provide a simple but elegant and interpretable way to model certain kinds of nonlinear relationships between the outcome and a predictor. Results The R package chngpt provides both estimation and hypothesis testing functionalities for four common variants of threshold regression models. All allow for adjustment of additional covariates not subjected to thresholding. We demonstrate the consistency of the estimating procedures and the type 1 error rates of the testing procedures by Monte Carlo studies, and illustrate their practical uses using an example from the study of immune response biomarkers in the context of Mother-To-Child-Transmission of HIV-1 viruses. Conclusion chngpt makes several unique contributions to the software for threshold regression models and will make these models more accessible to practitioners interested in modeling threshold effects.

Beyond the primary endpoint of symptomatic COVID-19, sieve analyses that focus on SARS-CoV-2 infections will be particularly relevant to characterize the effect of viral variation on vaccine efficacy. Since many infections remain asymptomatic, the emphasis on symptomatic COVID-19 means that the vaccine could show excellent (trial defined) efficacy without blocking all SARS-CoV-2 infections. Current trials typically study vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion at 3 to 6 monthly visits but can miss many infections because of waning nucleoprotein antibody detectability and limited RNA PCR nasal swab testing [6]. [...]it would be valuable for some vaccine efficacy trials to implement strategies to frequently test trial participants for SARS-CoV-2 infections and to sequence infections. [...]frequent screening for asymptomatic infections would allow to study how the protective efficacy of the vaccine against nasal carriage or asymptomatic infection depends on SARS-CoV-2 genetics. The distribution in gray represents the expected distribution in the placebo group, while the distribution in red represents the viruses infecting vaccine participants (after vaccine sieving). Since the vaccine presents the Spike to the immune system of vaccinated individuals, the distribution of hamming distances was restricted to Spike protein sequences to focus on sites relevant to the specificity of vaccine-induced immune responses.

Concerns have been raised about the risk of severe dengue in children who were seronegative before receipt of a recently deployed dengue vaccine. In this study, data from field trials were analyzed to assess the effect of baseline serostatus on subsequent severe illness.

Several studies have shown that neutralizing antibody levels correlate with immune protection from COVID-19 and have estimated the relationship between neutralizing antibodies and protection. However, results of these studies vary in terms of estimates of the level of neutralizing antibodies required for protection. By normalizing antibody titers, we found that study results converge on a consistent relationship between antibody levels and protection from COVID-19. This finding can be useful for planning future vaccine use, determining population immunity, and reducing the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are currently being developed for preventing HIV-1 acquisition. Recent work has focused on predicting in vitro neutralization potency of both individual bnAbs and combination regimens against HIV-1 pseudoviruses using Env sequence features. To predict in vitro combination regimen neutralization potency against a given HIV-1 pseudovirus, previous approaches have applied mathematical models to combine individual-bnAb neutralization and have predicted this combined neutralization value; we call this the combine-then-predict (CP) approach. However, prediction performance for some individual bnAbs has exceeded that for the combination, leading to another possibility: combining the individual-bnAb predicted values and using these to predict combination regimen neutralization; we call this the predict-then-combine (PC) approach. We explore both approaches in both simulated data and data from the Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Compile, Neutralize, and Tally NAb Panels repository. The CP approach is superior to the PC approach when the neutralization outcome of interest is binary (e.g., neutralization susceptibility, defined as inhibitory 80% concentration < 1 μg/mL). For continuous outcomes, the CP approach performs nearly as well as the PC approach when the individual-bnAb prediction algorithms have strong performance, and is superior to the PC approach when the individual-bnAb prediction algorithms have poor performance. This knowledge may be used when building prediction models for novel antibody combinations in the absence of in vitro neutralization data for the antibody combination; this, in turn, will aid in the evaluation and down-selection of these antibody combinations into prevention efficacy trials.

Vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are key biomarkers considered to be associated with vaccine efficacy. In United States government-sponsored phase 3 efficacy trials of COVID-19 vaccines, nAbs are measured by two different validated pseudovirus-based SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays, with each trial using one of the two assays. Here we describe and compare the nAb titers obtained in the two assays. We observe that one assay consistently yielded higher nAb titers than the other when both assays were performed on the World Health Organization’s anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin International Standard, COVID-19 convalescent sera, and mRNA-1273 vaccinee sera. To overcome the challenge this difference in readout poses in comparing/combining data from the two assays, we evaluate three calibration approaches and show that readouts from the two assays can be calibrated to a common scale. These results may aid decision-making based on data from these assays for the evaluation and licensure of new or adapted COVID-19 vaccines.

Analysis of correlates of risk of infection in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial demonstrated that plasma IgG against the HIV-1 envelope (Env) variable region 1 and 2 inversely correlated with risk, whereas HIV-1 Env-specific plasma IgA responses directly correlated with risk. In the secondary analysis, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) was another inverse correlate of risk, but only in the presence of low plasma IgA Env-specific antibodies. Thus, we investigated the hypothesis that IgA could attenuate the protective effect of IgG responses through competition for the same Env binding sites. We report that Env-specific plasma IgA/IgG ratios are higher in infected than in uninfected vaccine recipients in RV144. Moreover, Env-specific IgA antibodies from RV144 vaccinees blocked the binding of ADCC-mediating mAb to HIV-1 Env glycoprotein 120 (gp120). An Env-specific monomeric IgA mAb isolated from an RV144 vaccinee also inhibited the ability of natural killer cells to kill HIV-1–infected CD4 ⁺ T cells coated with RV144-induced IgG antibodies. We show that monomeric Env-specific IgA, as part of postvaccination polyclonal antibody response, may modulate vaccine-induced immunity by diminishing ADCC effector function.

Observational data and non-human primate challenge studies suggest that cell-mediated immune responses might provide control of HIV replication. The Step Study directly assessed the efficacy of a cell-mediated immunity vaccine to protect against HIV-1 infection or change in early plasma HIV-1 levels. We undertook a double-blind, phase II, test-of-concept study at 34 sites in North America, the Caribbean, South America, and Australia. We randomly assigned 3000 HIV-1-seronegative participants by computer-generated assignments to receive three injections of MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag/pol/nef vaccine (n=1494) or placebo (n=1506). Randomisation was prestratified by sex, adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) antibody titre at baseline, and study site. Primary objective was a reduction in HIV-1 acquisition rates (tested every 6 months) or a decrease in HIV-1 viral-load setpoint (early plasma HIV-1 RNA measured 3 months after HIV-1 diagnosis). Analyses were per protocol and modified intention to treat. The study was stopped early because it unexpectedly met the prespecified futility boundaries at the first interim analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00095576. In a prespecified interim analysis in participants with baseline Ad5 antibody titre 200 or less, 24 (3%) of 741 vaccine recipients became HIV-1 infected versus 21 (3%) of 762 placebo recipients (hazard ratio [HR] 1·2 [95% CI 0·6–2·2]). All but one infection occurred in men. The corresponding geometric mean plasma HIV-1 RNA was comparable in infected male vaccine and placebo recipients (4·61 vs 4·41 log10 copies per mL, one tailed p value for potential benefit 0·66). The vaccine elicited interferon-γ ELISPOT responses in 75% (267) of the 25% random sample of all vaccine recipients (including both low and high Ad5 antibody titres) on whose specimens this testing was done (n=354). In exploratory analyses of all study volunteers, irrespective of baseline Ad5 antibody titre, the HR of HIV-1 infection between vaccine and placebo recipients was higher in Ad5 seropositive men (HR 2·3 [95% CI 1·2–4·3]) and uncircumcised men (3·8 [1·5–9·3]), but was not increased in Ad5 seronegative (1·0 [0·5–1·9]) or circumcised (1·0 [0·6–1·7]) men. This cell-mediated immunity vaccine did not prevent HIV-1 infection or reduce early viral level. Mechanisms for insufficient efficacy of the vaccine and the increased HIV-1 infection rates in subgroups of vaccine recipients are being explored. Merck Research Laboratories; the Division of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in the US National Institutes of Health (NIH); and the NIH-sponsored HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN).

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV’s extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10–1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.