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Adam Siepel and colleagues develop a statistical method, fitCons, which combines comparative and functional genomic data to estimate the probability that a point mutation will influence fitness. They generate fitCons scores for three human cell types from ENCODE data sets and demonstrate improved prediction power for cis regulatory elements in comparison to conventional conservation-based scores. We describe a new computational method for estimating the probability that a point mutation at each position in a genome will influence fitness. These 'fitness consequence' (fitCons) scores serve as evolution-based measures of potential genomic function. Our approach is to cluster genomic positions into groups exhibiting distinct 'fingerprints' on the basis of high-throughput functional genomic data, then to estimate a probability of fitness consequences for each group from associated patterns of genetic polymorphism and divergence. We have generated fitCons scores for three human cell types on the basis of public data from ENCODE. In comparison with conventional conservation scores, fitCons scores show considerably improved prediction power for cis regulatory elements. In addition, fitCons scores indicate that 4.2–7.5% of nucleotides in the human genome have influenced fitness since the human-chimpanzee divergence, and they suggest that recent evolutionary turnover has had limited impact on the functional content of the genome.

The complex correlation structure of a collection of orthologous DNA sequences is uniquely captured by the \"ancestral recombination graph\" (ARG), a complete record of coalescence and recombination events in the history of the sample. However, existing methods for ARG inference are computationally intensive, highly approximate, or limited to small numbers of sequences, and, as a consequence, explicit ARG inference is rarely used in applied population genomics. Here, we introduce a new algorithm for ARG inference that is efficient enough to apply to dozens of complete mammalian genomes. The key idea of our approach is to sample an ARG of [Formula: see text] chromosomes conditional on an ARG of [Formula: see text] chromosomes, an operation we call \"threading.\" Using techniques based on hidden Markov models, we can perform this threading operation exactly, up to the assumptions of the sequentially Markov coalescent and a discretization of time. An extension allows for threading of subtrees instead of individual sequences. Repeated application of these threading operations results in highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers for ARGs. We have implemented these methods in a computer program called ARGweaver. Experiments with simulated data indicate that ARGweaver converges rapidly to the posterior distribution over ARGs and is effective in recovering various features of the ARG for dozens of sequences generated under realistic parameters for human populations. In applications of ARGweaver to 54 human genome sequences from Complete Genomics, we find clear signatures of natural selection, including regions of unusually ancient ancestry associated with balancing selection and reductions in allele age in sites under directional selection. The patterns we observe near protein-coding genes are consistent with a primary influence from background selection rather than hitchhiking, although we cannot rule out a contribution from recurrent selective sweeps.

Numerous studies of emerging species have identified genomic “islands” of elevated differentiation against a background of relative homogeneity. The causes of these islands remain unclear, however, with some signs pointing toward “speciation genes” that locally restrict gene flow and others suggesting selective sweeps that have occurred within nascent species after speciation. Here, we examine this question through the lens of genome sequence data for five species of southern capuchino seedeaters, finch-like birds from South America that have undergone a species radiation during the last ∼50,000 generations. By applying newly developed statistical methods for ancestral recombination graph inference and machine-learning methods for the prediction of selective sweeps, we show that previously identified islands of differentiation in these birds appear to be generally associated with relatively recent, species-specific selective sweeps, most of which are predicted to be soft sweeps acting on standing genetic variation. Many of these sweeps coincide with genes associated with melanin-based variation in plumage, suggesting a prominent role for sexual selection. At the same time, a few loci also exhibit indications of possible selection against gene flow. These observations shed light on the complex manner in which natural selection shapes genome sequences during speciation.

Complete genome sequences contain valuable information about natural selection, but this information is difficult to access for short, widely scattered noncoding elements such as transcription factor binding sites or small noncoding RNAs. Here, we introduce a new computational method, called Inference of Natural Selection from Interspersed Genomically coHerent elemenTs (INSIGHT), for measuring the influence of natural selection on such elements. INSIGHT uses a generative probabilistic model to contrast patterns of polymorphism and divergence in the elements of interest with those in flanking neutral sites, pooling weak information from many short elements in a manner that accounts for variation among loci in mutation rates and coalescent times. The method is able to disentangle the contributions of weak negative, strong negative, and positive selection based on their distinct effects on patterns of polymorphism and divergence. It obtains information about divergence from multiple outgroup genomes using a general statistical phylogenetic approach. The INSIGHT model is efficiently fitted to genome-wide data using an approximate expectation maximization algorithm. Using simulations, we show that the method can accurately estimate the parameters of interest even in complex demographic scenarios, and that it significantly improves on methods based on summary statistics describing polymorphism and divergence. To demonstrate the usefulness of INSIGHT, we apply it to several classes of human noncoding RNAs and to GATA2-binding sites in the human genome.

To identify genetic changes underlying dog domestication and reconstruct their early evolutionary history, we generated high-quality genome sequences from three gray wolves, one from each of the three putative centers of dog domestication, two basal dog lineages (Basenji and Dingo) and a golden jackal as an outgroup. Analysis of these sequences supports a demographic model in which dogs and wolves diverged through a dynamic process involving population bottlenecks in both lineages and post-divergence gene flow. In dogs, the domestication bottleneck involved at least a 16-fold reduction in population size, a much more severe bottleneck than estimated previously. A sharp bottleneck in wolves occurred soon after their divergence from dogs, implying that the pool of diversity from which dogs arose was substantially larger than represented by modern wolf populations. We narrow the plausible range for the date of initial dog domestication to an interval spanning 11-16 thousand years ago, predating the rise of agriculture. In light of this finding, we expand upon previous work regarding the increase in copy number of the amylase gene (AMY2B) in dogs, which is believed to have aided digestion of starch in agricultural refuse. We find standing variation for amylase copy number variation in wolves and little or no copy number increase in the Dingo and Husky lineages. In conjunction with the estimated timing of dog origins, these results provide additional support to archaeological finds, suggesting the earliest dogs arose alongside hunter-gathers rather than agriculturists. Regarding the geographic origin of dogs, we find that, surprisingly, none of the extant wolf lineages from putative domestication centers is more closely related to dogs, and, instead, the sampled wolves form a sister monophyletic clade. This result, in combination with dog-wolf admixture during the process of domestication, suggests that a re-evaluation of past hypotheses regarding dog origins is necessary.

Within the Canidae, the African wild dog ( Lycaon pictus ) is the most specialized with regards to cursorial adaptations (specialized for running), having only four digits on their forefeet. In addition, this species is one of the few canids considered to be an obligate meat-eater, possessing a robust dentition for taking down large prey, and displays one of the most variable coat colorations amongst mammals. Here, we used comparative genomic analysis to investigate the evolutionary history and genetic basis for adaptations associated with cursoriality, hypercanivory, and coat color variation in African wild dogs. Genome-wide scans revealed unique amino acid deletions that suggest a mode of evolutionary digit loss through expanded apoptosis in the developing first digit. African wild dog-specific signals of positive selection also uncovered a putative mechanism of molar cusp modification through changes in genes associated with the sonic hedgehog (SHH) signaling pathway, required for spatial patterning of teeth, and three genes associated with pigmentation. Divergence time analyses suggest the suite of genomic changes we identified evolved ~1.7 Mya, coinciding with the diversification of large-bodied ungulates. Our results show that comparative genomics is a powerful tool for identifying the genetic basis of evolutionary changes in Canidae.

Simulation is a key tool in population genetics for both methods development and empirical research, but producing simulations that recapitulate the main features of genomic datasets remains a major obstacle. Today, more realistic simulations are possible thanks to large increases in the quantity and quality of available genetic data, and the sophistication of inference and simulation software. However, implementing these simulations still requires substantial time and specialized knowledge. These challenges are especially pronounced for simulating genomes for species that are not well-studied, since it is not always clear what information is required to produce simulations with a level of realism sufficient to confidently answer a given question. The community-developed framework stdpopsim seeks to lower this barrier by facilitating the simulation of complex population genetic models using up-to-date information. The initial version of stdpopsim focused on establishing this framework using six well-characterized model species (Adrion et al., 2020). Here, we report on major improvements made in the new release of stdpopsim (version 0.2), which includes a significant expansion of the species catalog and substantial additions to simulation capabilities. Features added to improve the realism of the simulated genomes include non-crossover recombination and provision of species-specific genomic annotations. Through community-driven efforts, we expanded the number of species in the catalog more than threefold and broadened coverage across the tree of life. During the process of expanding the catalog, we have identified common sticking points and developed the best practices for setting up genome-scale simulations. We describe the input data required for generating a realistic simulation, suggest good practices for obtaining the relevant information from the literature, and discuss common pitfalls and major considerations. These improvements to stdpopsim aim to further promote the use of realistic whole-genome population genetic simulations, especially in non-model organisms, making them available, transparent, and accessible to everyone.

Adam Siepel and colleagues estimate key parameters for ancient human demography using a Bayesian analysis of the whole-genome sequences of six individuals from diverse populations. They present new methods for coalescent-based inference of demographic parameters as well as a custom pipeline for genotype inference. Whole-genome sequences provide a rich source of information about human evolution. Here we describe an effort to estimate key evolutionary parameters based on the whole-genome sequences of six individuals from diverse human populations. We used a Bayesian, coalescent-based approach to obtain information about ancestral population sizes, divergence times and migration rates from inferred genealogies at many neutrally evolving loci across the genome. We introduce new methods for accommodating gene flow between populations and integrating over possible phasings of diploid genotypes. We also describe a custom pipeline for genotype inference to mitigate biases from heterogeneous sequencing technologies and coverage levels. Our analysis indicates that the San population of southern Africa diverged from other human populations approximately 108–157 thousand years ago, that Eurasians diverged from an ancestral African population 38–64 thousand years ago, and that the effective population size of the ancestors of all modern humans was ∼9,000.

Making faultless complex objects from potentially faulty building blocks is a fundamental challenge in computer engineering, nanotechnology and synthetic biology. Here, we show for the first time how recursion can be used to address this challenge and demonstrate a recursive procedure that constructs error‐free DNA molecules and their libraries from error‐prone oligonucleotides. Divide and Conquer (D&C), the quintessential recursive problem‐solving technique, is applied in silico to divide the target DNA sequence into overlapping oligonucleotides short enough to be synthesized directly, albeit with errors; error‐prone oligonucleotides are recursively combined in vitro , forming error‐prone DNA molecules; error‐free fragments of these molecules are then identified, extracted and used as new, typically longer and more accurate, inputs to another iteration of the recursive construction procedure; the entire process repeats until an error‐free target molecule is formed. Our recursive construction procedure surpasses existing methods for de novo DNA synthesis in speed, precision, amenability to automation, ease of combining synthetic and natural DNA fragments, and ability to construct designer DNA libraries. It thus provides a novel and robust foundation for the design and construction of synthetic biological molecules and organisms.

Background Distance-based phylogenetic reconstruction methods use evolutionary distances between species in order to reconstruct the phylogenetic tree spanning them. There are many different methods for estimating distances from sequence data. These methods assume different substitution models and have different statistical properties. Since the true substitution model is typically unknown, it is important to consider the effect of model misspecification on the performance of a distance estimation method. Results This paper continues the line of research which attempts to adjust to each given set of input sequences a distance function which maximizes the expected topological accuracy of the reconstructed tree. We focus here on the effect of systematic error caused by assuming an inadequate model, but consider also the stochastic error caused by using short sequences. We introduce a theoretical framework for analyzing both sources of error based on the notion of deviation from additivity , which quantifies the contribution of model misspecification to the estimation error. We demonstrate this framework by studying the behavior of the Jukes-Cantor distance function when applied to data generated according to Kimura’s two-parameter model with a transition-transversion bias. We provide both a theoretical derivation for this case, and a detailed simulation study on quartet trees. Conclusions We demonstrate both analytically and experimentally that by deliberately assuming an oversimplified evolutionary model, it is possible to increase the topological accuracy of reconstruction. Our theoretical framework provides new insights into the mechanisms that enables statistically inconsistent reconstruction methods to outperform consistent methods.